MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Monday, June 22, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.261 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 3.333 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.24 fantasy points a trip. And Merrill Kelly has been giving up points to righties lately — 1.667 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Merrill Kelly, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at 1.863 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (1.500).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at 1.579 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.080), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Willson Contreras (BOS) (98) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at 1.705 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.080), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (93) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: an excellent bat at 2.151 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.034).
- Willi Castro (COL) (90) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a solid bat at 1.678 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (87) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at 1.873 into an arm giving up points to the same side (1.667).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (86) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: a league-average bat at 1.577 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (5.571).
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- LHP Sam Aldegheri has been getting lit up by lefties — 2.076 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Coby Mayo (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL).
- RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting lit up by righties — 1.937 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Heriberto Hernández (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — 1.833 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
- RHP Ryan Feltner has been vulnerable to righties — 1.811 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.261 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.180 against righties this year.
- Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, 1.625 against lefties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.876 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.000 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Alec Burleson finished with 9 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays