MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Monday, June 22, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.261 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 3.333 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.24 fantasy points a trip. And Merrill Kelly has been giving up points to righties lately — 1.667 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Merrill Kelly, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at 1.863 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (1.500).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at 1.579 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.080), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Willson Contreras (BOS) (98) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at 1.705 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.080), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (93) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: an excellent bat at 2.151 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.034).
- Willi Castro (COL) (90) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a solid bat at 1.678 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (87) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at 1.873 into an arm giving up points to the same side (1.667).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (86) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: a league-average bat at 1.577 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (5.571).
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- LHP Sam Aldegheri has been getting lit up by lefties — 2.076 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Coby Mayo (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL).
- RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting lit up by righties — 1.937 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Heriberto Hernández (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — 1.833 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
- RHP Ryan Feltner has been vulnerable to righties — 1.811 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.261 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.180 against righties this year.
- Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, 1.625 against lefties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.876 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.000 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Alec Burleson finished with 9 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.