MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kodai Senga. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.068 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 3.136 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.15 fantasy points a trip. And Kodai Senga has been tough on righties lately — .400 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Kodai Senga, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at 2.017 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.364).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at 1.906 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (97) vs RHP Sean Burke: a strong bat at 2.022 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.000), hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (90) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at 1.962 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.795).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (89) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at 1.680 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.786).
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (89) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at 2.089 into an arm tough on the same side (1.280), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (87) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at 1.863 into an arm tough on the same side (.917).
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Ryan Johnson has been getting lit up by righties — 2.067 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting lit up by righties — 2.015 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Jose Altuve (HOU), Christian Walker (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU).
- RHP Luinder Avila has been getting lit up by righties — 1.910 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).
- RHP Edward Cabrera has been vulnerable to righties — 1.821 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Juan Soto (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.068 against righties this year.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, 2.197 against lefties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.108 against righties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, 2.176 against lefties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.625 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 22 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays