MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kodai Senga. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.068 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 3.136 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.15 fantasy points a trip. And Kodai Senga has been tough on righties lately — .400 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Kodai Senga, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at 2.017 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.364).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at 1.906 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (97) vs RHP Sean Burke: a strong bat at 2.022 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.000), hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (90) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at 1.962 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.795).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (89) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at 1.680 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.786).
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (89) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at 2.089 into an arm tough on the same side (1.280), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (87) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at 1.863 into an arm tough on the same side (.917).
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Ryan Johnson has been getting lit up by righties — 2.067 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting lit up by righties — 2.015 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Jose Altuve (HOU), Christian Walker (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU).
- RHP Luinder Avila has been getting lit up by righties — 1.910 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).
- RHP Edward Cabrera has been vulnerable to righties — 1.821 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Juan Soto (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.068 against righties this year.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, 2.197 against lefties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.108 against righties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, 2.176 against lefties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.625 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 22 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.