MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Mahle. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.318 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 2.778 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.19 fantasy points a trip. And Tyler Mahle has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Tyler Mahle, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Nolan McLean: an excellent bat at 2.271 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (1.579), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Joe Ryan: an excellent bat at 2.193 into an arm tough on the same side (1.227).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (97) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: an excellent bat at 2.284 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.750).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (96) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at 1.861 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (4.360).
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (92) vs RHP Erick Fedde: an excellent bat at 2.068 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.968).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (92) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at 1.853 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.878), hitter's park.
- Nate Eaton (BOS) (89) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at 1.733 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.878), hitter's park.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting lit up by lefties — 2.117 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Tommy Troy (AZ).
- RHP Mike Burrows has been getting lit up by righties — 1.917 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Daulton Varsho (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties — 1.915 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Nate Eaton (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting lit up by righties — 1.907 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.318 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.119 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.192 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.433 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, 2.156 against lefties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 92.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays