MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Thursday, June 25, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Freddy Peralta. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.119 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 3.568 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.27 fantasy points a trip. And Freddy Peralta has been getting lit up by righties lately — 2.909 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Freddy Peralta too — .333 across 15 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (88) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at 2.213 into an arm giving up points to the same side (1.720).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (82) vs RHP Landen Roupp: an excellent bat at 2.192 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.000), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (81) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a strong bat at 2.011 into an arm giving up points to the same side (1.720).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (78) vs RHP Troy Melton: an excellent bat at 2.284 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.970).
- Matt Chapman (SF) (78) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at 1.717 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.667).
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (75) vs LHP Connelly Early: a strong bat at 1.941 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.000).
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (69) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at 1.752 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.250), due to bounce back.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting lit up by lefties — 2.133 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Chapman (SF), Bryce Eldridge (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting lit up by righties — 1.966 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Ian Happ (CHC).
- RHP Kevin Gausman has been vulnerable to righties — 1.891 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Jake Burger (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
- RHP Bubba Chandler has been vulnerable to righties — 1.808 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Cal Raleigh (SEA), J.P. Crawford (SEA), and Luke Raley (SEA).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.119 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.367 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.318 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.162 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.433 against righties this year.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 10 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays