MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Thursday, June 25, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.281 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 3.419 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.27 fantasy points a trip. And Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties lately — 2.756 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against Zac Gallen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at 2.271 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.909), hot bat.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (88) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at 2.213 into an arm giving up points to the same side (1.720).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (86) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at 1.868 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.756), due to bounce back.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (82) vs RHP Landen Roupp: an excellent bat at 2.192 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.000), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (81) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a strong bat at 2.011 into an arm giving up points to the same side (1.720).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (78) vs RHP Troy Melton: an excellent bat at 2.284 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.970).
- Matt Chapman (SF) (78) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at 1.717 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.667).
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting lit up by lefties — 2.133 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Chapman (SF), Bryce Eldridge (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties — 2.023 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Lars Nootbaar (STL).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting lit up by righties — 1.966 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Ian Happ (CHC).
- RHP Kevin Gausman has been vulnerable to righties — 1.891 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Jake Burger (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.281 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.119 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.367 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.861 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.318 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.