MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.115 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 1.364 over the last two weeks, a solid bat worth about 1.77 fantasy points a trip. And Tanner Gordon has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tanner Gordon too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Andy Pages (LAD) (100) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at 1.762 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.786).
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (97) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at 1.797 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (97) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at 1.702 into an arm tough on the same side (1.273), hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (96) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: an excellent bat at 2.098 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (93) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a solid bat at 1.804 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (87) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an elite bat at 2.336 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.800).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (85) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a strong bat at 1.864 into an arm tough on the same side (.538).
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting lit up by righties — 2.241 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Kyle Stowers (MIA), and Owen Caissie (MIA).
- RHP Kevin Gausman has been getting lit up by righties — 2.177 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and Carson Benge (NYM).
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting lit up by lefties — 2.115 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting lit up by lefties — 1.952 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.115 against righties this year.
- Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, 1.882 against lefties this year.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.693 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.974 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.711 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Liam Hicks (MIA) at 100.
How it played out
10 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Liam Hicks finished with 8 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays