MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Seth Lugo. The righty is piling up fantasy points at 2.200 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 3.619 over the last two weeks, an elite bat worth about 2.31 fantasy points a trip. And Seth Lugo has been getting lit up by righties lately — 3.125 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Seth Lugo too — .500 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (95) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: an excellent bat at 2.121 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (1.535), hot bat.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (88) vs RHP Paul Skenes: an elite bat at 2.336 into an arm giving up points to the same side (1.643).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (86) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at 1.916 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.125), hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (85) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at 2.098 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.454), hot bat.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (80) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at 2.014 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (80) vs RHP Paul Skenes: an excellent bat at 2.108 into an arm giving up points to the same side (1.643).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (79) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a strong bat at 2.035 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (1.535).
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties — 2.069 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Kyle Stowers (MIA), and Liam Hicks (MIA).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting lit up by righties — 1.959 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Sean Keys (TOR), and George Springer (TOR).
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties — 1.907 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Rafael Devers (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
- RHP Seth Lugo has been vulnerable to righties — 1.849 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Junior Caminero (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.200 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.479 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.974 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.107 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.173 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 78.
Lineup watch
252 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.