MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Seth Lugo. The righty is piling up fantasy points at 2.183 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 3.535 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.29 fantasy points a trip. And Seth Lugo has been getting lit up by righties lately — 3.125 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Seth Lugo too — .500 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at 1.833 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.381), hitter's park.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: an excellent bat at 2.142 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.818), hot bat.
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) (95) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at 1.827 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.381), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (92) vs RHP Paul Skenes: an elite bat at 2.345 into an arm giving up points to the same side (1.643).
- Luis Arraez (SF) (88) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at 1.930 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.454), hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (87) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at 2.171 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.454), hot bat.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (87) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at 1.901 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.125), hot bat.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties — 2.069 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), and Heriberto Hernández (MIA).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting lit up by righties — 1.959 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Daulton Varsho (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR).
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties — 1.908 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
- RHP Will Warren has been vulnerable to righties — 1.852 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Dillon Dingler (DET), Kerry Carpenter (DET), and Kevin McGonigle (DET).
Platoon edges to target
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, 2.378 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.191 against righties this year.
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, 2.204 against lefties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.454 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.786 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 100.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Junior Caminero finished with 16 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays