MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Thursday, July 2, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Vásquez. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.191 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 2.839 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.14 fantasy points a trip. And Randy Vásquez has been getting lit up by righties lately — 4.083 fantasy points per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 12 career PA against Randy Vásquez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Junior Caminero (TB) (95) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an excellent bat at 2.287 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (4.571), hot bat.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (90) vs RHP Jared Jones: an elite bat at 2.345 into an arm tough on the same side (.895).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (87) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: a strong bat at 2.015 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (7.875).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (85) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: a strong bat at 2.029 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (4.083).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (85) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at 1.733 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.692), hitter's park.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (84) vs RHP Jared Jones: an excellent bat at 2.122 into an arm tough on the same side (.895).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (84) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: a strong bat at 1.901 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (4.571).
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Randy Vásquez has been getting lit up by righties — 2.121 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Max Muncy (LAD).
- RHP Dustin May has been getting lit up by righties — 1.921 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Olson (ATL), Drake Baldwin (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL).
- RHP Stephen Kolek has been vulnerable to righties — 1.857 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Junior Caminero (TB), Jonathan Aranda (TB), and Yandy Díaz (TB).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — 1.814 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Esteury Ruiz (MIA).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.191 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.454 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.110 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.083 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.160 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 85.
Lineup watch
162 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.