MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Thursday, July 2, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.448 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 3.703 over the last two weeks, an elite bat worth about 2.36 fantasy points a trip. And Jared Jones has been tough on righties lately — .895 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Jared Jones, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: a strong bat at 2.035 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (4.083).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (100) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an elite bat at 2.330 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (4.571), hot bat.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at 1.913 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (1.417), hitter's park.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (99) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at 1.735 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (1.417), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (94) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: an excellent bat at 2.098 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (4.083).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (94) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at 1.722 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.692), hitter's park.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (92) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: a strong bat at 1.995 into an arm tough on the same side (1.053), hitter's park.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Randy Vásquez has been getting lit up by righties — 2.121 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).
- RHP Dustin May has been getting lit up by righties — 1.921 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).
- RHP Stephen Kolek has been vulnerable to righties — 1.857 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Junior Caminero (TB), Jonathan Aranda (TB), and Yandy Díaz (TB).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — 1.841 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA).
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.448 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.158 against righties this year.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.750 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.087 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.121 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Kyle Stowers (MIA) at 100.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Bryce Harper finished with 7 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays