Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?

A.J. Ewing (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Thursday, July 16, 2026: A.J. Ewing (100), Eric Wagaman (96), Juan Soto (85), Carson Benge (80), Trea Turner (74). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year. Carson Benge (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year.

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Hits Board · Today

Best MLB hits matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

7:10 PM ET

NYMaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 18 hitters are projected from each team's last game. Batting order (a key score driver) isn't final; these update automatically ~2 hours before first pitch.

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.260

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.27943 PA

Season.263160 PA

Last 2 Years.263160 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 8vs KC2

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS2

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS1

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.234

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.20848 PA

Season.239251 PA

Last 2 Years.244689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.194

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.175154 PA

Season.192977 PA

Last 2 Years.1972821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.347

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.327

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-3

Hits2 in 3 PA

Career Average.667

Plate Appearances3

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Hits1.115

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

A.J. Ewing's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.229

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.0001 PA

Season.0007 PA

Last 2 Years.219393 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jun 27vs PHI0

Jun 28vs PHI0

Jul 4@ ATL1

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.273

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.34823 PA

Season.276174 PA

Last 2 Years.267510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.242

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.261238 PA

Season.2281450 PA

Last 2 Years.2204553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.296

Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.356

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Hits1.101

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Eric Wagaman's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.234

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.21038 PA

Season.241216 PA

Last 2 Years.232881 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 8vs KC0

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS1

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.234

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.20848 PA

Season.239251 PA

Last 2 Years.244689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.194

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.175154 PA

Season.192977 PA

Last 2 Years.1972821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.414

Hard-Hit %40%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.327

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head11-for-42

Hits11 in 59 PA

Career Average.186

Plate Appearances59

HR · K · BB5 · 11 · 17

Projection

Projected Hits1.066

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Juan Soto's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~2.7× / ~1.6×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.261

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.32540 PA

Season.241290 PA

Last 2 Years.241290 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 8vs KC2

Jul 9vs KC2

Jul 10vs BOS1

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.234

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.20848 PA

Season.239251 PA

Last 2 Years.244689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.194

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.175154 PA

Season.192977 PA

Last 2 Years.1972821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.344

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.327

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-3

Hits1 in 3 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances3

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Hits1.052

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Carson Benge's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.240

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.22744 PA

Season.237274 PA

Last 2 Years.254928 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 7@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.199

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA

Season.19189 PA

Last 2 Years.187107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.215

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.230204 PA

Season.1951127 PA

Last 2 Years.1923332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.316

Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.311

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-1

Hits0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Hits1.033

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Trea Turner's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.257

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.21347 PA

Season.301262 PA

Last 2 Years.264781 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN2

Jul 10@ DET1

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.219

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.20035 PA

Season.188144 PA

Last 2 Years.226168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.222

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.230204 PA

Season.2161156 PA

Last 2 Years.1952961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.339

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.314

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Hits1 in 2 PA

Career Average.500

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Hits1.007

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brandon Marsh's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.232

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.3339 PA

Season.16965 PA

Last 2 Years.209412 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 5@ ATL1

Jul 9vs KC2

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS1

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.273

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.34823 PA

Season.276174 PA

Last 2 Years.267510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.242

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.261238 PA

Season.2281450 PA

Last 2 Years.2204553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.328

Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.356

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head5-for-12

Hits5 in 14 PA

Career Average.357

Plate Appearances14

HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 1

Projection

Projected Hits1.002

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Tyrone Taylor's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.227

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.18244 PA

Season.242248 PA

Last 2 Years.226796 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET2

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.219

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.20035 PA

Season.188144 PA

Last 2 Years.226168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.222

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.230204 PA

Season.2161156 PA

Last 2 Years.1952961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.362

Hard-Hit %40%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.314

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Hits1 in 2 PA

Career Average.500

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB1 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Hits0.993

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bryce Harper's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.216

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.20444 PA

Season.201254 PA

Last 2 Years.198921 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN1

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET1

Jul 12@ DET2

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.219

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.20035 PA

Season.188144 PA

Last 2 Years.226168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.222

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.230204 PA

Season.2161156 PA

Last 2 Years.1952961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.353

Hard-Hit %43%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.314

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-1

Hits0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Hits0.991

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Kyle Schwarber's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.221

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.21019 PA

Season.191126 PA

Last 2 Years.199392 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 5@ ATL0

Jul 6@ ATL1

Jul 7vs KC1

Jul 9vs KC0

Jul 12vs BOS1

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.273

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.34823 PA

Season.276174 PA

Last 2 Years.267510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.242

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.261238 PA

Season.2281450 PA

Last 2 Years.2204553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.297

Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.356

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-6

Hits2 in 6 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Hits0.956

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Luis Torrens's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.208

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.13537 PA

Season.185119 PA

Last 2 Years.252839 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 7vs KC0

Jul 8vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS1

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS2

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.234

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.20848 PA

Season.239251 PA

Last 2 Years.244689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.194

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.175154 PA

Season.192977 PA

Last 2 Years.1972821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.298

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.327

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head8-for-38

Hits8 in 42 PA

Career Average.191

Plate Appearances42

HR · K · BB1 · 10 · 2

Projection

Projected Hits0.954

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Francisco Lindor's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~2.4× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.213

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.17446 PA

Season.200255 PA

Last 2 Years.232784 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.199

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA

Season.19189 PA

Last 2 Years.187107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.215

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.230204 PA

Season.1951127 PA

Last 2 Years.1923332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.315

Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.311

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Hits0.911

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Alec Bohm's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.239

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.27540 PA

Season.212255 PA

Last 2 Years.224604 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 8vs KC1

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS3

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.234

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.20848 PA

Season.239251 PA

Last 2 Years.244689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.194

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.175154 PA

Season.192977 PA

Last 2 Years.1972821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.317

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.327

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-12

Hits1 in 15 PA

Career Average.067

Plate Appearances15

HR · K · BB0 · 4 · 3

Projection

Projected Hits0.911

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brett Baty's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 3 games since a hit

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.205

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.0003 PA

Season.09133 PA

Last 2 Years.12075 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jun 18@ PHI0

Jun 20@ PHI1

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.273

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.34823 PA

Season.276174 PA

Last 2 Years.267510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.242

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.261238 PA

Season.2281450 PA

Last 2 Years.2204553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.284

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.356

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Hits0.907

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Zack Short's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.241

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.23517 PA

Season.25056 PA

Last 2 Years.215223 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 7@ CIN2

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET3

Jul 11@ DET1

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.199

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA

Season.19189 PA

Last 2 Years.187107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.215

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.230204 PA

Season.1951127 PA

Last 2 Years.1923332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.323

Hard-Hit %31%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.311

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Hits0.896

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Derek Hill's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.207

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00010 PA

Season.18172 PA

Last 2 Years.210267 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jun 27@ NYM0

Jul 6@ KC0

Jul 7@ CIN1

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.199

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA

Season.19189 PA

Last 2 Years.187107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.215

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.230204 PA

Season.1951127 PA

Last 2 Years.1923332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.266

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.311

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Hits0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Hits0.88

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Edmundo Sosa's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.240

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.26549 PA

Season.217276 PA

Last 2 Years.231905 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN1

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET2

Jul 12@ DET2

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.219

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.20035 PA

Season.188144 PA

Last 2 Years.226168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs LHB.222

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.230204 PA

Season.2161156 PA

Last 2 Years.1952961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.306

Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.314

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Hits0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Hits0.874

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bryson Stott's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Hits / PA vs RHP.203

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.12931 PA

Season.181188 PA

Last 2 Years.233718 PA

Last 5 GamesHits

Jul 7@ CIN0

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 11@ DET1

Jul 12@ DET2

Opposing Starter · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.199

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA

Season.19189 PA

Last 2 Years.187107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Hits / Batter Faced vs RHB.215

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.230204 PA

Season.1951127 PA

Last 2 Years.1923332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.294

Hard-Hit %28%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.311

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Hits0.799

A rough estimate of hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

J.T. Realmuto's full player page →

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026

A.J. Ewing (NYM) is the top hits matchup on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 board at 100, with Eric Wagaman (NYM) and Juan Soto (NYM) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: A.J. Ewing

A.J. Ewing (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. The lefty is hitting .263 H/PA against righties this year — and .279 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Aaron Nola has been tough on righties lately — .208 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Aaron Nola too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Eric Wagaman (NYM) (96) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .229 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.348), due to bounce back.
Juan Soto (NYM) (85) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .234 into an arm tough on the same side (.208), due to bounce back.
Carson Benge (NYM) (80) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .261 into an arm tough on the same side (.208), due to bounce back.
Trea Turner (PHI) (74) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .240 into an arm tough on the same side (.050).
Brandon Marsh (PHI) (66) vs RHP Christian Scott: a strong bat at .257 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), due to bounce back.
Tyrone Taylor (NYM) (64) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .232 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.348).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (62) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .227 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).

Platoon edges to target

A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.
Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year.
Carson Benge (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year.
Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Cold but due to bounce back: Eric Wagaman (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), Brandon Marsh (PHI), and Brett Baty (NYM).

Lineup watch

18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?: A.J. Ewing (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Thursday, July 16, 2026: A.J. Ewing (100), Eric Wagaman (96), Juan Soto (85), Carson Benge (80), Trea Turner (74). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year. Carson Benge (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year.
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Cold but due to bounce back: Eric Wagaman (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), Brandon Marsh (PHI), and Brett Baty (NYM).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays