Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, July 10, 2026)?

Heliot Ramos (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, July 10, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Friday, July 10, 2026: Heliot Ramos (100), Michael Harris II (96), Fernando Tatis Jr. (94), Luis Arraez (93), Trevor Larnach (87). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, July 10, 2026?

No — Heliot Ramos didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .295 against righties this year. Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year. Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .416 against lefties this year. Ernie Clement (TOR) — righty bat vs LHP, .267 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Shane Bieber has been getting tattooed by righties — .297 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Xander Bogaerts (SD), and Manny Machado (SD). RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .288 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Heliot Ramos (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF). RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Kody Clemens (MIN), and Ryan Jeffers (MIN). LHP Ryan Weathers has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Dylan Crews (WSH), and Curtis Mead (WSH).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, July 10, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, July 10, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 66% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 66%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 67%

Full slate

156/25162%

season 58%

Top call Fernando Tatis Jr. came through. Heliot Ramos didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–10

PHIaway

DEThomeTop matchup59 Final · 5–3

NYYaway

WSHhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–5

KCaway

BALhomeTop matchup72 Final · 0–4

CHCaway

CINhomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–7

SEAaway

TBhomeTop matchup69 Final · 3–2

CLEaway

MIAhomeTop matchup85 Final · 6–2

BOSaway

NYMhomeTop matchup69 Final · 1–14

ATHaway

CWShomeTop matchup61 Final · 3–7

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup70 Final · 4–3

LAAaway

MINhomeTop matchup87 Final · 1–2

ATLaway

STLhomeTop matchup96 Final · 5–3

TORaway

SDhomeTop matchup94 Final · 9–3

AZaway

LADhomeTop matchup67 Final · 4–3

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100

Not starting67 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 318 shownScore

157 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsATH· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
2
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsCOL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #4
T2
James WoodRF
WSHvsNYY· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T2
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsCOL· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T2
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsCHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T2
Andy PagesCF
LADvsAZ· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T2
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsSEA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T2
Kyle Karros3B
COL@SF· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T2
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #74
T2
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsSEA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T2
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@NYM· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T2
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsBOS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T2
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsSEA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T2
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@LAD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
15
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T15
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T15
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsCHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T15
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T15
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T15
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T15
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@NYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T15
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@WSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T15
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T15
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T15
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@LAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T15
Manny Machado3B
SDvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T15
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T15
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T15
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T15
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T15
Ty France1B
SDvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T15
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T15
Josh BellDH
MINvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T15
Miguel Rojas2B
LADvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T15
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@MIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T15
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T15
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@CWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T15
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T15
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T15
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DETvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T15
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsLAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T15
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOU@TEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T15
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@SF· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T15
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T15
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T15
Rodolfo DuránC
SDvsTOR· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T15
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T15
Myles StrawCF
TOR@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T15
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T15
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T15
José CaballeroSS
NYY@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T15
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T15
Josh Rojas3B
KC@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T15
Jared Young1B
NYMvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T15
Tsung-Che ChengSS
BOS@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T15
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@BAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T15
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T15
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T15
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T15
Tyler HeinemanC
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
61
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsTOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
T61
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T61
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T61
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T61
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T61
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T61
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T61
Adley RutschmanC
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T61
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsTOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T61
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T61
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T61
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T61
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T61
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T61
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T61
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T61
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T61
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T61
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T61
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T61
Ben RiceDH
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T61
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsPHI· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T61
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T61
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATH@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T61
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T61
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T61
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T61
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T61
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T61
Colt Keith3B
DETvsPHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T61
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T61
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsPHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T61
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T61
Michael Massey2B
KC@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T61
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T61
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T61
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T61
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T61
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T61
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T61
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T61
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T61
Taylor WardDH
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T61
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T61
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T61
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T61
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T61
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T61
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T61
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T61
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T61
George SpringerDH
TOR@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T61
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T61
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T61
Zach NetoSS
LAA@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T61
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T61
Austin HedgesC
CLE@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T61
Ian HappLF
CHC@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T61
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T61
Drew CavanaughC
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T61
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T61
JJ BledayLF
CINvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T61
Jim JarvisSS
ATL@STL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T61
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T61
Cole Young2B
SEA@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #155
T61
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T61
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T61
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T61
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T61
Salvador PerezDH
KC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T61
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@NYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T61
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T61
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T61
Leo Jiménez3B
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T61
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T61
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T61
Mickey MoniakLF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T61
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T61
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T61
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T61
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T61
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T61
Jonatan ClaseLF
TOR@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T61
Tristan GraySS
MINvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T61
Steven KwanLF
CLE@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T61
Blaze Jordan3B
STLvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T61
Hunter FeducciaC
TBvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #234
T61
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T61
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #236
T61
Jake RogersC
DETvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #237
T61
Yainer DiazC
HOU@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T61
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T61
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T61
Austin Riley3B
ATL@STL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T61
Austin WellsC
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #244
T61
James OutmanCF
DETvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #250
T61
Luis CampusanoC
SDvsTOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026

Heliot Ramos (SF) is the top hits matchup on the Friday, July 10, 2026 board at 100, with Michael Harris II (ATL) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The righty is hitting .248 H/PA against righties this year — and .286 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .500 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Tanner Gordon, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Michael Harris II (ATL) (96) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.227), hot bat.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (94) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a strong bat at .256 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.438).
Luis Arraez (SF) (93) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.257).
Trevor Larnach (MIN) (87) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .253 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Otto Lopez (MIA) (85) vs LHP Parker Messick: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.243), hot bat.
Ernie Clement (TOR) (85) vs LHP JP Sears: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (84) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.355).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Shane Bieber has been getting tattooed by righties — .297 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Xander Bogaerts (SD), and Manny Machado (SD).
RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .288 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Heliot Ramos (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Kody Clemens (MIN), and Ryan Jeffers (MIN).
LHP Ryan Weathers has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Dylan Crews (WSH), and Curtis Mead (WSH).

Platoon edges to target

Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .295 against righties this year.
Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year.
Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .416 against lefties this year.
Ernie Clement (TOR) — righty bat vs LHP, .267 against lefties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Heliot Ramos (SF), Michael Harris II (ATL), Otto Lopez (MIA), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), and Ozzie Albies (ATL). Cold but due to bounce back: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Anthony Seigler (BOS), and Paul Goldschmidt (NYY).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Heliot Ramos finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, July 10, 2026)?: Heliot Ramos (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, July 10, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Friday, July 10, 2026: Heliot Ramos (100), Michael Harris II (96), Fernando Tatis Jr. (94), Luis Arraez (93), Trevor Larnach (87). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, July 10, 2026?: No — Heliot Ramos didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .295 against righties this year. Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year. Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .416 against lefties this year. Ernie Clement (TOR) — righty bat vs LHP, .267 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Shane Bieber has been getting tattooed by righties — .297 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Xander Bogaerts (SD), and Manny Machado (SD). RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .288 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Heliot Ramos (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF). RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Kody Clemens (MIN), and Ryan Jeffers (MIN). LHP Ryan Weathers has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Dylan Crews (WSH), and Curtis Mead (WSH).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Heliot Ramos (SF), Michael Harris II (ATL), Otto Lopez (MIA), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), and Ozzie Albies (ATL). Cold but due to bounce back: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Anthony Seigler (BOS), and Paul Goldschmidt (NYY).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.