Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026
Top hits spot: Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Will Warren. The lefty is hitting .283 H/PA against righties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 32% of his trips. And Will Warren has been giving up plenty to righties lately — .244 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Will Warren. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (98) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm tough on the same side (.196).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (92) vs RHP Dustin May: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316).
- Ernie Clement (TOR) (91) vs RHP Germán Márquez: a strong bat at .262 into an arm tough on the same side (.167), hot bat.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (89) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.257).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (85) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a strong bat at .254 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (85) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: a strong bat at .268 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.324), hot bat.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (83) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Seth Lugo has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
- RHP Trevor McDonald has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Mickey Moniak (COL).
- RHP Dustin May has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
- RHP Tyler Phillips has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brayan Rocchio (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and Travis Bazzana (CLE).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .283 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .293 against lefties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Ernie Clement (TOR), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Garrett Mitchell (MIL), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Ben Rice (NYY), and Jac Caglianone (KC). Cold but due to bounce back: Otto Lopez (MIA), Shea Langeliers (ATH), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Jonah Heim (ATH).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.