Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)?

Luis Arraez (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Sunday, July 12, 2026: Luis Arraez (100), Luis García Jr. (89), Mickey Moniak (88), Otto Lopez (88), Jake McCarthy (86). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, July 12, 2026?

No — Luis Arraez didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .300 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year. Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .275 against righties this year. Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .402 against lefties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Seth Lugo has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Dylan Beavers (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL). RHP Trevor McDonald has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Mickey Moniak (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL). LHP Andrew Abbott has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Carson Kelly (CHC). RHP Dustin May has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, July 12, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, July 12, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 65%

Top 10

3/1030%

season 67%

Full slate

155/27057%

season 58%

Top call Jake McCarthy came through. Luis Arraez didn't.

Final · 5–14

MILaway

PIThomeTop matchup85 Final · 2–8

KCaway

BALhomeTop matchup81 Final · 5–3

NYYaway

WSHhomeTop matchup89 Final · 8–4

CHCaway

CINhomeTop matchup81 Final · 3–2

BOSaway

NYMhomeTop matchup67 Final · 5–2

CLEaway

MIAhomeTop matchup88 Final · 8–2

SEAaway

TBhomeTop matchup72 Final · 5–0

PHIaway

DEThomeTop matchup65 Final · 2–4

LAAaway

MINhomeTop matchup71 Final · 1–9

ATHaway

CWShomeTop matchup74 Final · 4–3

ATLaway

STLhomeTop matchup75 Final · 5–6

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup82 Final · 1–3

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–3

AZaway

LADhomeTop matchup77 Final · 4–5

TORaway

SDhomeTop matchup84

Not starting67 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 337 shownScore

162 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsKC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T1
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@TB· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T1
Manny Machado3B
SDvsTOR· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T1
Lane ThomasCF
KC@BAL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T1
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@CIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T1
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsMIL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T1
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsCOL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #196
T1
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsHOU· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
9
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@MIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T9
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T9
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T9
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T9
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T9
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T9
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsCHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T9
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T9
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T9
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T9
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T9
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T9
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@DET· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T9
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsKC· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T9
Mike TroutCF
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T9
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #95
T9
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsMIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T9
Michael Busch1B
CHC@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T9
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLE@MIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T9
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsHOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T9
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@WSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T9
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T9
José TenaDH
WSHvsNYY· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T9
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #130
T9
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsMIL· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #147
T9
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@SD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T9
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #170
T9
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T9
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T9
Steven KwanLF
CLE@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T9
Marcell OzunaDH
PITvsMIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T9
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsLAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T9
Brewer HicklenCF
ATL@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T9
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #225
T9
Jonatan ClaseLF
TOR@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T9
Kyle TeelC
CWSvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T9
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@DET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #242
T9
Henry DavisC
PITvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T9
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #256
T9
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #259
T9
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
50
Jake McCarthyCF
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T50
Jake MangumCF
PITvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T50
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T50
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsCHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T50
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T50
Brice Turang2B
MIL@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T50
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATH@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T50
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T50
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsMIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T50
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T50
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T50
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T50
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@MIA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T50
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T50
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T50
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T50
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@NYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T50
Ben Rice1B
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T50
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T50
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T50
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T50
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T50
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T50
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T50
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T50
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T50
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #57
T50
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T50
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T50
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T50
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T50
James WoodRF
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #62
T50
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T50
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T50
Matt Olson1B
ATL@STL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T50
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T50
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T50
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T50
Christian YelichDH
MIL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T50
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T50
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T50
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #78
T50
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T50
Jonah HeimC
ATH@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #88
T50
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T50
Liam HicksC
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T50
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T50
JJ BledayLF
CINvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T50
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T50
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T50
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T50
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T50
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@NYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T50
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T50
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T50
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T50
Gabriel Arias3B
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #131
T50
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T50
José FermínLF
STLvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T50
Gary SánchezC
MIL@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #138
T50
Tyrone TaylorLF
NYMvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T50
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #146
T50
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #148
T50
Petey HalpinCF
CLE@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T50
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #156
T50
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T50
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T50
José CaballeroSS
NYY@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T50
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T50
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #162
T50
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T50
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T50
Cole Young2B
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T50
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #171
T50
Jim JarvisSS
ATL@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #172
T50
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T50
Josh LoweLF
LAA@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #179
T50
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T50
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CINvsCHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T50
Cal RaleighC
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T50
Connor WongC
BOS@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T50
Ty France1B
SDvsTOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #200
T50
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T50
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T50
Weston Wilson3B
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T50
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T50
Kevin AlcántaraDH
CHC@CIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T50
Salvador PerezDH
KC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T50
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TOR@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T50
Cam SmithRF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T50
Max SchuemannLF
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T50
Hunter FeducciaC
TBvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #227
T50
Ryan KreidlerSS
MINvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T50
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #230
T50
Daulton VarshoCF
TOR@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T50
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T50
Joey Meneses1B
ATH@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T50
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T50
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T50
Tim TawaLF
AZ@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #248
T50
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #249
T50
Buddy Kennedy1B
SEA@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T50
Austin WellsC
NYY@WSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #258
T50
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T50
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T50
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T50
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T50
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsKC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T50
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T50
Yainer DiazC
HOU@TEX· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T50
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@CWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T50
Eli WhiteRF
ATL@STL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T50
Joe MackC
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026

Luis Arraez (SF) is the top hits matchup on the Sunday, July 12, 2026 board at 100, with Luis García Jr. (WSH) and Mickey Moniak (COL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is hitting .300 H/PA against righties this year — and .295 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been tough on righties lately — .196 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael Lorenzen too — .500 across 10 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Luis García Jr. (WSH) (89) vs RHP Will Warren: an elite bat at .309 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.267).
Mickey Moniak (COL) (88) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a strong bat at .263 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.348).
Otto Lopez (MIA) (88) vs LHP Joey Cantillo: an excellent bat at .286 into an arm tough on the same side (.195), due to bounce back.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (86) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a solid bat at .248 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.348).
Jake Mangum (PIT) (85) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a strong bat at .263 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263).
TJ Rumfield (COL) (85) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.348).
Ernie Clement (TOR) (84) vs RHP Germán Márquez: a strong bat at .258 into an arm tough on the same side (.167), hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Seth Lugo has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Dylan Beavers (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
RHP Trevor McDonald has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Mickey Moniak (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
LHP Andrew Abbott has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Carson Kelly (CHC).
RHP Dustin May has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).

Platoon edges to target

Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .300 against righties this year.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year.
Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .275 against righties this year.
Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .402 against lefties this year.
Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Ernie Clement (TOR), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Jac Caglianone (KC), Ben Rice (NYY), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Jasson Domínguez (NYY). Cold but due to bounce back: Otto Lopez (MIA), JJ Wetherholt (STL), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Romy Gonzalez (BOS).

How it played out

3 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Luis Arraez finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)?: Luis Arraez (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Sunday, July 12, 2026: Luis Arraez (100), Luis García Jr. (89), Mickey Moniak (88), Otto Lopez (88), Jake McCarthy (86). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, July 12, 2026?: No — Luis Arraez didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .300 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year. Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .275 against righties this year. Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .402 against lefties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Seth Lugo has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Dylan Beavers (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL). RHP Trevor McDonald has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Mickey Moniak (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL). LHP Andrew Abbott has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Carson Kelly (CHC). RHP Dustin May has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Ernie Clement (TOR), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Jac Caglianone (KC), Ben Rice (NYY), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Jasson Domínguez (NYY). Cold but due to bounce back: Otto Lopez (MIA), JJ Wetherholt (STL), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Romy Gonzalez (BOS).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays