Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, July 11, 2026)?

Luis Arraez (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, July 11, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Saturday, July 11, 2026: Luis Arraez (100), Ernie Clement (100), Yordan Alvarez (94), Adley Rutschman (90), Otto Lopez (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, July 11, 2026?

Yes — Luis Arraez got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .266 against righties this year. Adley Rutschman (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .214 against lefties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .283 against righties this year. Taylor Ward (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .226 against lefties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties — .308 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Heliot Ramos (SF), and Bryce Eldridge (SF). LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been vulnerable to lefties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Torkelson (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Eduardo Valencia (DET). LHP Noah Cameron has been vulnerable to lefties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL). RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Brooks Lee (MIN), and Kody Clemens (MIN).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Saturday, July 11, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, July 11, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, July 11, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 66% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 66%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 67%

Full slate

165/28558%

season 58%

Top call Luis Arraez came through. Adley Rutschman didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 6–7

MILaway

PIThomeTop matchup76 Final · 3–5

LAAaway

MINhomeTop matchup83 Final · 0–1

ATHaway

CWShomeTop matchup69 Final · 2–3

MILaway

PIThomeTop matchup77 Final · 2–4

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–2

NYYaway

WSHhomeTop matchup87 Final · 4–0

BOSaway

NYMhomeTop matchup83 Final · 1–6

SEAaway

TBhomeTop matchup76 Final · 4–1

CLEaway

MIAhomeTop matchup89 Final · 4–2

PHIaway

DEThomeTop matchup74 Final · 9–3

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup94 Final · 1–6

KCaway

BALhomeTop matchup90 Final · 5–3

CHCaway

CINhomeTop matchup72 Final · 1–4

ATLaway

STLhomeTop matchup71 Final · 7–8

TORaway

SDhomeTop matchup100 Final · 9–2

AZaway

LADhomeTop matchup81

Not starting65 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 350 shownScore

166 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Ben Williamson2B
TBvsSEA· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
2
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsPHI· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T2
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsSEA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T2
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsMIL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #89
T2
James WoodRF
WSHvsNYY· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T2
Michael Busch1B
CHC@CIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T2
Gabriel Arias3B
CLE@MIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T2
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@LAD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #272
9
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T9
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T9
Liam HicksC
MIAvsCLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T9
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T9
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DETvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T9
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T9
Mickey MoniakLF
COL@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T9
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T9
Carson KellyC
CHC@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T9
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@MIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T9
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@LAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T9
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T9
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #78
T9
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T9
William ContrerasC
MIL@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #85
T9
Andy PagesCF
LADvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T9
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATH@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #92
T9
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsMIL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #94
T9
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T9
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T9
Ben RiceDH
NYY@WSH· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T9
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T9
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T9
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CINvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T9
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T9
Zach NetoSS
LAA@MIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T9
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T9
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T9
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T9
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T9
Mike TroutCF
LAA@MIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T9
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T9
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T9
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsTOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T9
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T9
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T9
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T9
Ty France1B
SDvsTOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T9
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsBOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T9
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T9
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T9
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@PIT· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #252
T9
James McCannC
AZ@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T9
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T9
TJ FriedlCF
CINvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #279
T9
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #281
55
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T55
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T55
Taylor WardDH
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T55
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T55
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T55
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T55
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T55
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T55
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T55
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T55
Jake MangumCF
PITvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #21
T55
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T55
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T55
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T55
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T55
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsCHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T55
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@NYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T55
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T55
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T55
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T55
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T55
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T55
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T55
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T55
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T55
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T55
Matt Olson1B
ATL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T55
Brice Turang2B
MIL@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T55
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T55
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T55
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T55
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T55
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T55
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T55
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T55
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T55
Josh BellDH
MINvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T55
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T55
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T55
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T55
JJ BledayLF
CINvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T55
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #95
T55
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #96
T55
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #97
T55
Christian YelichDH
MIL@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #100
T55
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T55
Kyle Karros3B
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T55
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@MIA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T55
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T55
Michael Massey2B
KC@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T55
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T55
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T55
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T55
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T55
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T55
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T55
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T55
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T55
Ben MalgeriRF
DETvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #148
T55
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #149
T55
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T55
Manny Machado3B
SDvsTOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T55
Alan RodenRF
MINvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T55
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T55
Christian Walker1B
HOU@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T55
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T55
Luis LaraRF
MIL@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T55
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T55
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T55
Jorge PolancoDH
NYMvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T55
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #175
T55
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T55
Cole Young2B
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T55
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #185
T55
Jesus RodriguezC
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #186
T55
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #187
T55
Joe MackC
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T55
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T55
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #193
T55
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #194
T55
Cal RaleighC
SEA@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T55
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLE@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T55
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T55
Sal FrelickRF
MIL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T55
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T55
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T55
Petey HalpinCF
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T55
Max KeplerLF
AZ@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T55
Nick FortesC
TBvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T55
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T55
Victor RoblesRF
SEA@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T55
Jonatan ClaseLF
TOR@SD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T55
Yainer DiazC
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T55
Tristan GraySS
MINvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T55
Eli WhiteRF
ATL@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T55
Billy CookCF
PITvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T55
Brett SullivanC
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #249
T55
Derek HillCF
PHI@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #251
T55
Elias DíazC
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #255
T55
Bryan TorresLF
STLvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #257
T55
Austin Riley3B
ATL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T55
Steven KwanLF
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T55
Christian VázquezC
HOU@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T55
Henry DavisC
PITvsMIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #266
T55
Miguel AmayaC
CHC@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T55
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268
T55
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
T55
Blaze Jordan3B
STLvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #270
T55
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #273
T55
Ian HappLF
CHC@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #276
T55
Sung-Mun Song2B
SDvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #283
T55
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsCHC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, July 11, 2026

Luis Arraez (SF) is the top hits matchup on the Saturday, July 11, 2026 board at 100, with Ernie Clement (TOR) and Yordan Alvarez (HOU) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The lefty is hitting .288 H/PA against lefties this year — and .467 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .550 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Ernie Clement (TOR) (100) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.296), hot bat.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (94) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .264 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364).
Adley Rutschman (BAL) (90) vs LHP Noah Cameron: a solid bat at .230 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400).
Otto Lopez (MIA) (89) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: an excellent bat at .287 into an arm tough on the same side (.158).
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (89) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a solid bat at .245 into an arm tough on the same side (.182), hot bat.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) (87) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: an elite bat at .316 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
Taylor Ward (BAL) (85) vs LHP Noah Cameron: a solid bat at .232 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties — .308 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Heliot Ramos (SF), and Bryce Eldridge (SF).
LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been vulnerable to lefties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Torkelson (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Eduardo Valencia (DET).
LHP Noah Cameron has been vulnerable to lefties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL).
RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Brooks Lee (MIN), and Kody Clemens (MIN).

Platoon edges to target

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .266 against righties this year.
Adley Rutschman (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .214 against lefties this year.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .283 against righties this year.
Taylor Ward (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .226 against lefties this year.
Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Ernie Clement (TOR), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Masataka Yoshida (BOS), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Wyatt Langford (TEX), and Jeremy Peña (HOU). Cold but due to bounce back: Nick Gonzales (PIT), Trea Turner (PHI), Randal Grichuk (CWS), Carter Jensen (KC), and Kody Clemens (MIN).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Luis Arraez finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, July 11, 2026)?: Luis Arraez (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, July 11, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Saturday, July 11, 2026: Luis Arraez (100), Ernie Clement (100), Yordan Alvarez (94), Adley Rutschman (90), Otto Lopez (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, July 11, 2026?: Yes — Luis Arraez got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .266 against righties this year. Adley Rutschman (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .214 against lefties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .283 against righties this year. Taylor Ward (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .226 against lefties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties — .308 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Heliot Ramos (SF), and Bryce Eldridge (SF). LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been vulnerable to lefties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Torkelson (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Eduardo Valencia (DET). LHP Noah Cameron has been vulnerable to lefties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL). RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Brooks Lee (MIN), and Kody Clemens (MIN).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Ernie Clement (TOR), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Masataka Yoshida (BOS), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Wyatt Langford (TEX), and Jeremy Peña (HOU). Cold but due to bounce back: Nick Gonzales (PIT), Trea Turner (PHI), Randal Grichuk (CWS), Carter Jensen (KC), and Kody Clemens (MIN).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.