Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, July 11, 2026
Top hits spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The lefty is hitting .288 H/PA against lefties this year — and .467 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .550 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ernie Clement (TOR) (84) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a strong bat at .265 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.296), hot bat.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (80) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .265 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (80) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm tough on the same side (.158).
- Amed Rosario (NYY) (76) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a solid bat at .245 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.355).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (72) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.238).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (72) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .252 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364).
- Jake Mangum (PIT) (71) vs LHP Shane Drohan: a strong bat at .258 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties — .308 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Heliot Ramos (SF), and Bryce Eldridge (SF).
- LHP Gage Jump has been vulnerable to lefties — .284 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Colson Montgomery (CWS), and Munetaka Murakami (CWS).
- LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been vulnerable to lefties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Torkelson (DET), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Eduardo Valencia (DET).
- RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Amed Rosario (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Trent Grisham (NYY).
Platoon edges to target
- Heliot Ramos (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .296 against lefties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .276 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .268 against lefties this year.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Ernie Clement (TOR), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Kevin McGonigle (DET), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Wyatt Langford (TEX), and Masataka Yoshida (BOS). Cold but due to bounce back: Trea Turner (PHI), Cole Carrigg (COL), Kody Clemens (MIN), William Contreras (MIL), and Nick Gonzales (PIT).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.