Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is stacking production at .500 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .674 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 53% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been tough on righties lately — .375 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael Lorenzen too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (95) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .538 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.474), hot bat.
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) (88) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .517 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.960), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (85) vs RHP Mitch Spence: a strong bat at .542 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (82) vs RHP Drew Anderson: an excellent bat at .607 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.842), hot bat.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (80) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .512 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.875).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (80) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .548 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.480).
- Alex Bregman (CHC) (79) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a league-average bat at .426 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.960).
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Kai-Wei Teng has been getting lit up by righties — .549 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Kerry Carpenter (DET), and Dillon Dingler (DET).
- RHP Mitch Spence has been getting lit up by righties — .544 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting lit up by righties — .531 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Alex Bregman (CHC).
- RHP Nick Martinez has been vulnerable to righties — .517 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .546 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .583 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .593 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .536 against righties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 7 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.