Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The righty is stacking production at .540 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .618 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 53% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been getting lit up by righties lately — 1.091 H+R+RBI per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Johnson. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: an excellent bat at .552 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (97) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .550 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.615).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (95) vs RHP Kodai Senga: an excellent bat at .566 into an arm tough on the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (90) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at .496 into an arm tough on the same side (.306).
- Taylor Ward (BAL) (89) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a league-average bat at .419 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.091).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (89) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .519 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.000), hot bat.
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) (88) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: an excellent bat at .578 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.615).
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Ryan Johnson has been getting lit up by righties — .620 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
- RHP Luinder Avila has been getting lit up by righties — .587 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Cedric Mullins (TB).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting lit up by righties — .562 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jose Altuve (HOU), Christian Walker (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).
- LHP Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable to lefties — .513 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Andrew Vaughn (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).
Platoon edges to target
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .651 against lefties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .627 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .547 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .560 against righties this year.
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .765 against lefties this year.
Best parks for all-around production today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Pete Alonso finished with 0 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.