Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The righty is stacking production at .540 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .618 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 53% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been getting lit up by righties lately — 1.091 H+R+RBI per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Johnson. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: an excellent bat at .552 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (97) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .550 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.615).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (95) vs RHP Kodai Senga: an excellent bat at .566 into an arm tough on the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (90) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at .496 into an arm tough on the same side (.306).
- Taylor Ward (BAL) (89) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a league-average bat at .419 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.091).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (89) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .519 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.000), hot bat.
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) (88) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: an excellent bat at .578 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.615).
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Ryan Johnson has been getting lit up by righties — .620 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
- RHP Luinder Avila has been getting lit up by righties — .587 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Cedric Mullins (TB).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting lit up by righties — .562 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jose Altuve (HOU), Christian Walker (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).
- LHP Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable to lefties — .513 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Andrew Vaughn (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).
Platoon edges to target
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .651 against lefties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .627 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .547 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .560 against righties this year.
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .765 against lefties this year.
Best parks for all-around production today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Pete Alonso finished with 0 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays