Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is stacking production at .613 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .833 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 60% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties lately — .583 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Merrill Kelly, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .496 into an arm tough on the same side (.375).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .454 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.600), hitter's park, hot bat.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (95) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .529 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.583).
- Jo Adell (LAA) (91) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .510 into an arm tough on the same side (.375).
- Willson Contreras (BOS) (90) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .457 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.600), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Willi Castro (COL) (86) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a solid bat at .473 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (83) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: a league-average bat at .414 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.000).
Arms giving up production today
- LHP Sam Aldegheri has been getting lit up by lefties — .610 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL).
- RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting lit up by righties — .551 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Heriberto Hernández (MIA).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties — .525 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
- RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .513 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .613 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .541 against righties this year.
- Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .545 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .568 against righties this year.
Best parks for all-around production today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Alec Burleson finished with 2 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays