Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is stacking production at .613 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .833 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 60% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties lately — .583 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Merrill Kelly, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .496 into an arm tough on the same side (.375).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .454 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.600), hitter's park, hot bat.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (95) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .529 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.583).
- Jo Adell (LAA) (91) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .510 into an arm tough on the same side (.375).
- Willson Contreras (BOS) (90) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .457 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.600), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Willi Castro (COL) (86) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a solid bat at .473 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (83) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: a league-average bat at .414 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.000).
Arms giving up production today
- LHP Sam Aldegheri has been getting lit up by lefties — .610 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL).
- RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting lit up by righties — .551 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Heriberto Hernández (MIA).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties — .525 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
- RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .513 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .613 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .541 against righties this year.
- Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .545 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .568 against righties this year.
Best parks for all-around production today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Alec Burleson finished with 2 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.