Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Liberatore. The righty is stacking production at .625 (H+R+RBI)/PA against lefties this year — and .450 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 51% of his trips. And Matthew Liberatore has been getting lit up by lefties lately — 1.160 H+R+RBI per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Matthew Liberatore too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .535 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.585), hitter's park.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (95) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: an excellent bat at .552 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Nate Eaton (BOS) (93) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .483 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.585), hitter's park.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (92) vs LHP Gage Jump: a strong bat at .498 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.000), due to bounce back.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (90) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .521 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.833).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (89) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: an excellent bat at .598 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.429).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (89) vs RHP Joe Ryan: a strong bat at .540 into an arm tough on the same side (.364).
Arms giving up production today
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting lit up by lefties — .579 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Tommy Troy (AZ).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties — .562 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Nate Eaton (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
- RHP Mike Burrows has been getting lit up by righties — .554 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Daulton Varsho (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR).
- RHP Trey Gibson has been vulnerable to righties — .517 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Denzer Guzman (LAA), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), and Donovan Walton (LAA).
Platoon edges to target
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .625 against lefties this year.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .614 against lefties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .561 against righties this year.
- Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, 1.000 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .603 against righties this year.
Best parks for all-around production today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Ketel Marte finished with 4 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.