Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Liberatore. The righty is stacking production at .625 (H+R+RBI)/PA against lefties this year — and .450 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 51% of his trips. And Matthew Liberatore has been getting lit up by lefties lately — 1.160 H+R+RBI per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Matthew Liberatore too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .535 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.585), hitter's park.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (95) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: an excellent bat at .552 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Nate Eaton (BOS) (93) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .483 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.585), hitter's park.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (92) vs LHP Gage Jump: a strong bat at .498 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.000), due to bounce back.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (90) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .521 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.833).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (89) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: an excellent bat at .598 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.429).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (89) vs RHP Joe Ryan: a strong bat at .540 into an arm tough on the same side (.364).
Arms giving up production today
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting lit up by lefties — .579 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Tommy Troy (AZ).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties — .562 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Nate Eaton (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
- RHP Mike Burrows has been getting lit up by righties — .554 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Daulton Varsho (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR).
- RHP Trey Gibson has been vulnerable to righties — .517 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Denzer Guzman (LAA), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), and Donovan Walton (LAA).
Platoon edges to target
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .625 against lefties this year.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .614 against lefties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .561 against righties this year.
- Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, 1.000 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .603 against righties this year.
Best parks for all-around production today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Ketel Marte finished with 4 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays