Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Thursday, June 25, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. The lefty is stacking production at .621 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .884 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 61% of his trips. And Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties lately — .902 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against Zac Gallen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .590 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.886), hot bat.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (93) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .533 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.902), due to bounce back.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (83) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at .571 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.480).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (75) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at .524 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.400).
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (75) vs LHP Connelly Early: a strong bat at .518 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.529).
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (75) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at .552 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.480).
- Matt Chapman (SF) (74) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .456 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.067).
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties — .613 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Lars Nootbaar (STL).
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting lit up by lefties — .597 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Chapman (SF), Bryce Eldridge (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
- RHP Kevin Gausman has been getting lit up by righties — .560 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Jake Burger (TEX), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting lit up by righties — .559 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Ian Happ (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC).
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .621 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .557 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .538 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .588 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .682 against lefties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.