Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Friday, June 26, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. The lefty is stacking production at .562 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .643 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 53% of his trips. And Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties lately — .902 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Zac Gallen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (100) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a strong bat at .520 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.850).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: an excellent bat at .564 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.720).
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (90) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a strong bat at .550 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.793), due to bounce back.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (88) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .520 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.533), due to bounce back.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (85) vs RHP Max Meyer: an excellent bat at .612 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.400), hot bat.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (84) vs RHP Taj Bradley: an excellent bat at .561 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.707), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (83) vs LHP Zach Thornton: an excellent bat at .550 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties — .613 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Richie Palacios (TB).
- RHP Trevor McDonald has been getting lit up by righties — .566 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL).
- RHP Luis Castillo has been getting lit up by righties — .548 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kyle Manzardo (CLE), and Brayan Rocchio (CLE).
- LHP Patrick Corbin has been getting lit up by lefties — .537 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Josh Jung (TEX), and Jake Burger (TEX).
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .562 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .615 against righties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .533 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .522 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .621 against righties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Jonathan Aranda finished with 3 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays