Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Friday, June 26, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. The lefty is stacking production at .562 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .643 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 53% of his trips. And Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties lately — .902 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Zac Gallen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (100) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a strong bat at .520 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.850).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: an excellent bat at .564 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.720).
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (90) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a strong bat at .550 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.793), due to bounce back.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (88) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .520 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.533), due to bounce back.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (85) vs RHP Max Meyer: an excellent bat at .612 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.400), hot bat.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (84) vs RHP Taj Bradley: an excellent bat at .561 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.707), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (83) vs LHP Zach Thornton: an excellent bat at .550 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties — .613 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Richie Palacios (TB).
- RHP Trevor McDonald has been getting lit up by righties — .566 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL).
- RHP Luis Castillo has been getting lit up by righties — .548 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kyle Manzardo (CLE), and Brayan Rocchio (CLE).
- LHP Patrick Corbin has been getting lit up by lefties — .537 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Josh Jung (TEX), and Jake Burger (TEX).
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .562 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .615 against righties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .533 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .522 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .621 against righties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Jonathan Aranda finished with 3 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.