Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, June 11, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is going deep on .033 HR/PA against righties this year — and .050 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Mitch Keller too — .333 across 12 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (87) vs RHP Hunter Dobbins: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (78) vs RHP Keider Montero: big-time bat at .055 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (70) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: big-time bat at .050 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.333).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (66) vs RHP Bryan Woo: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Luke Raley (SEA) (65) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (63) vs RHP Christian Scott: solid bat at .038 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (60) vs RHP Mitch Keller: solid bat at .037 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .033 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
- Luke Raley (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .045 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .040 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the home runs board is
The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
- The park's home-run environment and the wind.
- How hard and how often he hits it in the air.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.
How to use it
Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays