Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 10, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Sproat. The lefty is going deep on .049 HR/PA against righties this year — and .088 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Brandon Sproat has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Brandon Sproat. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (87) vs RHP Max Scherzer: big-time bat at .054 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (76) vs RHP Andre Pallante: real bat at .048 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (71) vs LHP Reid Detmers: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (63) vs LHP Jake Bennett: real bat at .041 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Ian Happ (CHC) (63) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (62) vs RHP Peter Lambert: solid bat at .040 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.043).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (61) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .049 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .090 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .059 against lefties this year.
- Ian Happ (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .056 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.