Who has the best home runs matchup today (Tuesday, June 23, 2026)?

Juan Soto (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Edward Cabrera. Big-time bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Tuesday, June 23, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Tuesday, June 23, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Pete Alonso (100), Yordan Alvarez (91), Ben Rice (91), Brandon Lowe (85). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Tuesday, June 23, 2026?

No — Juan Soto didn't record a home run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year. Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .080 against righties this year. Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .062 against righties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.

What are park factors?

This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB home runs matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Every slugger on the Tuesday, June 23, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Results show how each call played out.

Get notified on every DINGER today. Distance, exit velo, and launch angle the moment anyone goes yard — turn on live HR alerts.

How the model did — Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 0/5 (0%) on 1+ home run, against 22% on the season.

Top 5

0/50%

season 22%

Top 10

2/1020%

season 23%

Full slate

36/27013%

season 11%

Top call Pete Crow-Armstrong came through. Juan Soto didn't.

Each slugger below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average slugger in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction home run calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, home run PODs are hitting at a 0% rate — a -100% return.

+7%Jake MangumFinal SEA @ PITwe project 13% vs the book's 6% · 0 HROver (1+ HR)1uCZRCaesars+1500 · to +1077✗

+5%Luis ArraezNEWFinal ATH @ SFwe project 14% vs the book's 9% · 0 HROver (1+ HR)1uCZRCaesars+1100 · to +959✗

+5%Victor RoblesFinal SEA @ PITwe project 12% vs the book's 7% · 0 HROver (1+ HR)1uCZRCaesars+1300 · to +1291✗

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Final · 9–7

HOUaway

TORhomeTop matchup91 Final · 4–3

NYYaway

DEThomeTop matchup91 Final · 3–2

SEAaway

PIThomeTop matchup85 Final · 12–5

KCaway

TBhomeTop matchup68 Final · 4–6

TEXaway

MIAhomeTop matchup57 Final · 14–9

PHIaway

WSHhomeTop matchup50 Final · 9–6

CHCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–0

MILaway

CINhomeTop matchup58 Final · 12–3

LADaway

MINhomeTop matchup69 Final · 1–2

CLEaway

CWShomeTop matchup62 Final · 4–3

AZaway

STLhomeTop matchup65 Final · 5–2

BOSaway

COLhomeTop matchup84 Final · 1–5

BALaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–7

ATLaway

SDhomeTop matchup49 Final · 1–3

ATHaway

SFhomeTop matchup46

Not starting71 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 341 shownScore

38 with a HRMost recent first — newest homer up top

1
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsATH· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #131
2
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsATL· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #115
3
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@SD· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #263
4
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsBAL· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #208
5
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-1
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR
6
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #211
7
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@COL· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #222
8
Willi Castro2B
COLvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #236
9
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #184
10
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #191
11
Alex CallLF
LAD@MIN· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #212
12
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #59
13
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLE@CWS· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #153
14
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #7
15
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsCHC· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #157
16
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsCHC· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #165
17
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@NYM· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #244
18
Joey LoperfidoLF
HOU@TOR· 1-for-1
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR
19
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@WSH· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #73
20
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #121
21
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@WSH· 3-for-6
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #167
22
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@WSH· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #206
23
Cal RaleighC
SEA@PIT· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #19
24
Cole Young2B
SEA@PIT· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #204
25
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@DET· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #37
26
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@TB· 3-for-5
2HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #92
27
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsKC· 3-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #10
28
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@MIA· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #34
29
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@MIA· 3-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #38
30
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #57
31
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #97
32
Joe MackC
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #137
33
Nick Loftin3B
KC@TB· 4-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #192
34
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsHOU· 3-for-6
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #88
35
Yainer DiazC
HOU@TOR· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #145
36
Luis Urías2B
TORvsHOU· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #154
37
Cam SmithRF
HOU@TOR· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #163
38
Taylor TrammellCF
HOU@TOR· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #189

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Juan Soto (NYM) is the top home runs matchup on the Tuesday, June 23, 2026 board at 100, with Pete Alonso (BAL) and Yordan Alvarez (HOU) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Juan Soto

Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Edward Cabrera. The lefty is going deep on .076 HR/PA against righties this year — and .073 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Edward Cabrera has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .097 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .071 in 14 career PA against Edward Cabrera, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.

The rest of the top of the board

Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091).
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (91) vs RHP Shane Bieber: real bat at .046 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Ben Rice (NYY) (91) vs RHP Casey Mize: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Brandon Lowe (PIT) (85) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .046 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038), hot bat.
Hunter Goodman (COL) (84) vs RHP Sonny Gray: real bat at .050 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040).
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (73) vs RHP Kodai Senga: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (69) vs LHP Kendry Rojas: real bat at .042 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Platoon edges to target

Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .080 against righties this year.
Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .062 against righties this year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.

How it played out

2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Juan Soto finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Tuesday, June 23, 2026)?: Juan Soto (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Edward Cabrera. Big-time bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Tuesday, June 23, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Tuesday, June 23, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Pete Alonso (100), Yordan Alvarez (91), Ben Rice (91), Brandon Lowe (85). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Tuesday, June 23, 2026?: No — Juan Soto didn't record a home run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year. Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .080 against righties this year. Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .062 against righties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.
What are park factors?: This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.