Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Top home runs spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Edward Cabrera. The lefty is going deep on .076 HR/PA against righties this year — and .073 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Edward Cabrera has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .097 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .071 in 14 career PA against Edward Cabrera, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (91) vs RHP Shane Bieber: real bat at .046 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (91) vs RHP Casey Mize: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (85) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .046 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038), hot bat.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (84) vs RHP Sonny Gray: real bat at .050 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (73) vs RHP Kodai Senga: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (69) vs LHP Kendry Rojas: real bat at .042 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .080 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .062 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Juan Soto finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.