Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael King. The lefty is going deep on .046 HR/PA against righties this year — and .063 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Michael King has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael King too — .381 across 21 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (92) vs RHP Tyler Phillips: big-time bat at .056 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (90) vs LHP Kyle Harrison: big-time bat at .060 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (86) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: elite bat at .070 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (86) vs RHP Nick Martinez: big-time bat at .053 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.065).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (79) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: big-time bat at .053 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042), hot bat.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (76) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (66) vs RHP the starter: big-time bat at .057 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .046 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .052 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .069 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.