Best MLB home runs matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?

Juan Soto (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. Elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Thursday, July 16, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Kyle Schwarber (88), Bryce Harper (57), Francisco Lindor (36), Brandon Marsh (33). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Thursday, July 16, 2026?

No — Juan Soto didn't record a home run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .082 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year. Francisco Lindor (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .033 against righties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .045 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.

What are park factors?

This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Is MatchWiz free?

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.