Who has the best home runs matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?

Juan Soto (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. Elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Thursday, July 16, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Kyle Schwarber (89), Bryce Harper (58), Francisco Lindor (31), Brandon Marsh (29). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year. Francisco Lindor (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .025 against righties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .046 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a home run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a home run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Home Runs Board · Today

Best MLB home runs matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Every slugger on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

7:10 PM ET

NYMaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 18 hitters are projected from each team's last game. Batting order (a key score driver) isn't final; these update automatically ~2 hours before first pitch.

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.068

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.10538 PA

Season.079216 PA

Last 2 Years.069881 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8vs KC0

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.045

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.02148 PA

Season.048251 PA

Last 2 Years.049689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.024

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.019154 PA

Season.024977 PA

Last 2 Years.0252821 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -4%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.418

Hard-Hit %45%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.354

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head11-for-42

Home Runs5 in 59 PA

Career Average.186

Plate Appearances59

HR · K · BB5 · 11 · 17

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.479

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Juan Soto's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.070

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04544 PA

Season.083254 PA

Last 2 Years.075921 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.046

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08635 PA

Season.042144 PA

Last 2 Years.054168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.030

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.039204 PA

Season.0331156 PA

Last 2 Years.0272961 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -4%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.373

Hard-Hit %44%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.323

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-1

Home Runs0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.434

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Kyle Schwarber's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.053

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04544 PA

Season.069248 PA

Last 2 Years.053796 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.046

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08635 PA

Season.042144 PA

Last 2 Years.054168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.030

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.039204 PA

Season.0331156 PA

Last 2 Years.0272961 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.381

Hard-Hit %40%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.323

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Home Runs1 in 2 PA

Career Average.500

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB1 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.305

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bryce Harper's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.038

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.02737 PA

Season.025119 PA

Last 2 Years.045839 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 7vs KC0

Jul 8vs KC0

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS1

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.045

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.02148 PA

Season.048251 PA

Last 2 Years.049689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.024

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.019154 PA

Season.024977 PA

Last 2 Years.0252821 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -4%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.338

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.354

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head8-for-38

Home Runs1 in 42 PA

Career Average.191

Plate Appearances42

HR · K · BB1 · 10 · 2

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.195

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Francisco Lindor's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.038

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04347 PA

Season.046262 PA

Last 2 Years.036781 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.046

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08635 PA

Season.042144 PA

Last 2 Years.054168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.030

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.039204 PA

Season.0331156 PA

Last 2 Years.0272961 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.353

Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.323

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Home Runs0 in 2 PA

Career Average.500

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.188

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brandon Marsh's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.033

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.07043 PA

Season.031160 PA

Last 2 Years.031160 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8vs KC1

Jul 9vs KC0

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.045

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.02148 PA

Season.048251 PA

Last 2 Years.049689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.024

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.019154 PA

Season.024977 PA

Last 2 Years.0252821 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.350

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.354

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-3

Home Runs0 in 3 PA

Career Average.667

Plate Appearances3

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.176

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

A.J. Ewing's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~2.7× / ~1.6×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.028

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.02540 PA

Season.028290 PA

Last 2 Years.028290 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8vs KC0

Jul 9vs KC0

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.045

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.02148 PA

Season.048251 PA

Last 2 Years.049689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.024

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.019154 PA

Season.024977 PA

Last 2 Years.0252821 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.327

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.354

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-3

Home Runs0 in 3 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances3

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.147

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Carson Benge's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.033

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.06844 PA

Season.033274 PA

Last 2 Years.030928 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 7@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.018

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00020 PA

Season.01189 PA

Last 2 Years.009107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.029

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.039204 PA

Season.0251127 PA

Last 2 Years.0303332 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.313

Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.325

Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-1

Home Runs0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.135

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Trea Turner's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.027

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.02540 PA

Season.016255 PA

Last 2 Years.032604 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8vs KC0

Jul 9vs KC0

Jul 10vs BOS1

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.045

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.02148 PA

Season.048251 PA

Last 2 Years.049689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.024

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.019154 PA

Season.024977 PA

Last 2 Years.0252821 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.310

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.354

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-12

Home Runs0 in 15 PA

Career Average.067

Plate Appearances15

HR · K · BB0 · 4 · 3

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.124

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brett Baty's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.030

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00010 PA

Season.02872 PA

Last 2 Years.030267 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 27@ NYM0

Jul 6@ KC0

Jul 7@ CIN0

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.018

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00020 PA

Season.01189 PA

Last 2 Years.009107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.029

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.039204 PA

Season.0251127 PA

Last 2 Years.0303332 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.270

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.325

Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Home Runs0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.099

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Edmundo Sosa's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.028

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.2229 PA

Season.04665 PA

Last 2 Years.015412 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 5@ ATL1

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.039

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08723 PA

Season.046174 PA

Last 2 Years.035510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.026

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.038238 PA

Season.0261450 PA

Last 2 Years.0244553 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.288

Hard-Hit %31%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.338

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head5-for-12

Home Runs0 in 14 PA

Career Average.357

Plate Appearances14

HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 1

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.097

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Tyrone Taylor's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.030

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.03231 PA

Season.032188 PA

Last 2 Years.029718 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 7@ CIN0

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.018

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00020 PA

Season.01189 PA

Last 2 Years.009107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.029

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.039204 PA

Season.0251127 PA

Last 2 Years.0303332 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.309

Hard-Hit %30%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.325

Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.096

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

J.T. Realmuto's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.022

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.0001 PA

Season.0007 PA

Last 2 Years.015393 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 27vs PHI0

Jun 28vs PHI0

Jul 4@ ATL0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.039

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08723 PA

Season.046174 PA

Last 2 Years.035510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.026

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.038238 PA

Season.0261450 PA

Last 2 Years.0244553 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.284

Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.338

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.096

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Eric Wagaman's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.031

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05917 PA

Season.03656 PA

Last 2 Years.027223 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 7@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET1

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.018

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00020 PA

Season.01189 PA

Last 2 Years.009107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.029

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.039204 PA

Season.0251127 PA

Last 2 Years.0303332 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.302

Hard-Hit %30%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.325

Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.096

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Derek Hill's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~2.4× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.025

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04346 PA

Season.028255 PA

Last 2 Years.020784 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.018

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00020 PA

Season.01189 PA

Last 2 Years.009107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.029

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.039204 PA

Season.0251127 PA

Last 2 Years.0303332 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.299

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.325

Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.095

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Alec Bohm's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.024

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00049 PA

Season.022276 PA

Last 2 Years.025905 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.046

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08635 PA

Season.042144 PA

Last 2 Years.054168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.030

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.039204 PA

Season.0331156 PA

Last 2 Years.0272961 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.308

Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.323

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Home Runs0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.095

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bryson Stott's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 3 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.021

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.0003 PA

Season.00033 PA

Last 2 Years.01375 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 18@ PHI0

Jun 20@ PHI0

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.039

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08723 PA

Season.046174 PA

Last 2 Years.035510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.026

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.038238 PA

Season.0261450 PA

Last 2 Years.0244553 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.259

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.338

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.073

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Zack Short's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.017

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00019 PA

Season.008126 PA

Last 2 Years.015392 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 5@ ATL0

Jul 6@ ATL0

Jul 7vs KC0

Jul 9vs KC0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.039

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.08723 PA

Season.046174 PA

Last 2 Years.035510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.026

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.038238 PA

Season.0261450 PA

Last 2 Years.0244553 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.280

Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.338

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-6

Home Runs0 in 6 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.069

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Luis Torrens's full player page →

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Juan Soto (NYM) is the top home runs matchup on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 board at 100, with Kyle Schwarber (PHI) and Bryce Harper (PHI) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Juan Soto

Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. The lefty is going deep on .079 HR/PA against righties this year — and .105 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Aaron Nola has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .021 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .186 in 59 career PA against Aaron Nola, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (89) vs RHP Christian Scott: elite bat at .070 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.086).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (58) vs RHP Christian Scott: big-time bat at .053 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.086).
Francisco Lindor (NYM) (31) vs RHP Aaron Nola: solid bat at .038 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.021).
Brandon Marsh (PHI) (29) vs RHP Christian Scott: solid bat at .038 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.086), due to bounce back.
A.J. Ewing (NYM) (26) vs RHP Aaron Nola: solid bat at .033 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.021).
Carson Benge (NYM) (19) vs RHP Aaron Nola: league-average bat at .028 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.021), due to bounce back.
Trea Turner (PHI) (16) vs RHP Christian Scott: solid bat at .033 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).

Platoon edges to target

Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
Francisco Lindor (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .025 against righties this year.
Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .046 against righties this year.

Lineup watch

18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?: Juan Soto (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. Elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Thursday, July 16, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Kyle Schwarber (89), Bryce Harper (58), Francisco Lindor (31), Brandon Marsh (29). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year. Francisco Lindor (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .025 against righties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .046 against righties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a home run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a home run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays