Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jack Flaherty. The lefty is going deep on .086 HR/PA against righties this year — and .049 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Jack Flaherty has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .065 in 31 career PA against Jack Flaherty, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (97) vs RHP Sonny Gray: elite bat at .066 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (95) vs RHP Sean Burke: big-time bat at .057 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (81) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: big-time bat at .053 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (74) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: big-time bat at .057 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.086).
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (72) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: big-time bat at .058 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (72) vs RHP Hunter Greene: big-time bat at .052 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (72) vs RHP Luis Castillo: elite bat at .068 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .086 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .052 against righties this year.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .061 against lefties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .058 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.