Who has the best home runs matchup today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)?

Rafael Devers (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. Big-time bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Sunday, July 12, 2026: Rafael Devers (100), Esmerlyn Valdez (100), Munetaka Murakami (100), Mickey Moniak (97), Shohei Ohtani (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Sunday, July 12, 2026?

No — Rafael Devers didn't record a home run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .059 against righties this year. Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .161 against lefties this year. Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .090 against righties this year. Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year. Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a home run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a home run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB home runs matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026

Every slugger on the Sunday, July 12, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Results show how each call played out.

Get notified on every DINGER today. Distance, exit velo, and launch angle the moment anyone goes yard — turn on live HR alerts.

How the model did — Sunday, July 12, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on 1+ home run, against 22% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 22%

Top 10

2/1020%

season 22%

Full slate

28/27010%

season 11%

Top call Shohei Ohtani came through. Rafael Devers didn't.

Final · 5–14

MILaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–8

KCaway

BALhomeTop matchup68 Final · 5–3

NYYaway

WSHhomeTop matchup90 Final · 8–4

CHCaway

CINhomeTop matchup75 Final · 3–2

BOSaway

NYMhomeTop matchup48 Final · 5–2

CLEaway

MIAhomeTop matchup62 Final · 8–2

SEAaway

TBhomeTop matchup75 Final · 5–0

PHIaway

DEThomeTop matchup86 Final · 2–4

LAAaway

MINhomeTop matchup77 Final · 1–9

ATHaway

CWShomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–3

ATLaway

STLhomeTop matchup74 Final · 5–6

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup77 Final · 1–3

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–3

AZaway

LADhomeTop matchup97 Final · 4–5

TORaway

SDhomeTop matchup72

Not starting67 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 337 shownScore

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026

Rafael Devers (SF) is the top home runs matchup on the Sunday, July 12, 2026 board at 100, with Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) and Munetaka Murakami (CWS) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is going deep on .059 HR/PA against righties this year — and .167 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .018 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Michael Lorenzen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (100) vs LHP Robert Gasser: elite bat at .080 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (100) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: elite bat at .073 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067).
Mickey Moniak (COL) (97) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: big-time bat at .059 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.043).
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (97) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: big-time bat at .057 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Hunter Goodman (COL) (92) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: elite bat at .065 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Ben Rice (NYY) (90) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: big-time bat at .062 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050), hot bat.
Shea Langeliers (ATH) (87) vs LHP Noah Schultz: big-time bat at .063 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091), due to bounce back.

Platoon edges to target

Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .059 against righties this year.
Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .161 against lefties this year.
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .090 against righties this year.
Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.

How it played out

2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Rafael Devers finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)?: Rafael Devers (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. Big-time bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Sunday, July 12, 2026: Rafael Devers (100), Esmerlyn Valdez (100), Munetaka Murakami (100), Mickey Moniak (97), Shohei Ohtani (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Sunday, July 12, 2026?: No — Rafael Devers didn't record a home run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .059 against righties this year. Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .161 against lefties this year. Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .090 against righties this year. Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year. Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a home run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a home run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays