Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026
Top home runs spot: Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP J.T. Ginn. The lefty is going deep on .090 HR/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And J.T. Ginn has been homer-prone to righties lately — .049 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against J.T. Ginn. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ben Rice (NYY) (95) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: big-time bat at .062 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050), hot bat.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (91) vs LHP Noah Schultz: big-time bat at .064 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (87) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: big-time bat at .064 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.143).
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (76) vs LHP Robert Gasser: big-time bat at .059 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (76) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: big-time bat at .051 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.057).
- James Wood (WSH) (75) vs RHP Will Warren: real bat at .050 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (74) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: big-time bat at .058 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .090 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .084 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .072 against lefties this year.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .111 against lefties this year.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .058 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.