Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, July 11, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Pfaadt. The lefty is going deep on .047 HR/PA against righties this year — and .030 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Brandon Pfaadt has been homer-prone to righties lately — .048 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .210 in 19 career PA against Brandon Pfaadt. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (96) vs RHP Casey Mize: elite bat at .071 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (94) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: big-time bat at .062 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (92) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: big-time bat at .058 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (84) vs LHP Bryan Hudson: big-time bat at .063 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (82) vs RHP the starter: big-time bat at .060 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (76) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: elite bat at .070 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (72) vs LHP Shane Drohan: big-time bat at .059 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .084 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .072 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.