Who has the best home runs matchup today (Tuesday, July 14, 2026)?

Juan Soto (NL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Dylan Cease. Elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Tuesday, July 14, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Tuesday, July 14, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Kyle Schwarber (91), Shea Langeliers (78), Yordan Alvarez (65), Junior Caminero (60). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Juan Soto (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year. Shea Langeliers (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .071 against lefties this year. Junior Caminero (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .056 against lefties this year. CJ Abrams (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a home run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a home run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Home Runs Board · Today

Best MLB home runs matchups — Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Every slugger on the Tuesday, July 14, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

8:00 PM ET

ALaway

NLhomeTop matchup100

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.068

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.10538 PA

Season.079216 PA

Last 2 Years.069881 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8vs KC0

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.021

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00050 PA

Season.018229 PA

Last 2 Years.021749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.038261 PA

Season.0241800 PA

Last 2 Years.0254554 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -4%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.418

Hard-Hit %45%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.281

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-11

Home Runs1 in 12 PA

Career Average.167

Plate Appearances12

HR · K · BB1 · 5 · 1

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.492

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Juan Soto's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.070

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04544 PA

Season.083254 PA

Last 2 Years.075921 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.021

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00050 PA

Season.018229 PA

Last 2 Years.021749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.038261 PA

Season.0241800 PA

Last 2 Years.0254554 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -4%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.373

Hard-Hit %44%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.281

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head3-for-13

Home Runs2 in 16 PA

Career Average.188

Plate Appearances16

HR · K · BB2 · 4 · 3

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.453

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Kyle Schwarber's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.063

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04224 PA

Season.071112 PA

Last 2 Years.076302 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ DET0

Jul 9@ DET0

Jul 10@ CWS0

Jul 11@ CWS0

Jul 12@ CWS1

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.06562 PA

Season.028399 PA

Last 2 Years.0231283 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.024

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.023353 PA

Season.0232229 PA

Last 2 Years.0246167 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.399

Hard-Hit %42%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.323

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-4

Home Runs0 in 4 PA

Career Average.500

Plate Appearances4

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.401

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Shea Langeliers's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.058

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.0008 PA

Season.075106 PA

Last 2 Years.067225 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 7@ WSH0

Jul 8@ WSH0

Jul 10@ TEX1

Jul 11@ TEX1

Jul 12@ TEX0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.015

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00014 PA

Season.008126 PA

Last 2 Years.011381 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.020

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.024211 PA

Season.0211341 PA

Last 2 Years.0183598 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.376

Hard-Hit %42%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.220

Hard-Hit % Allowed27%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.345

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Yordan Alvarez's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.055

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.3758 PA

Season.056107 PA

Last 2 Years.058328 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8vs NYY0

Jul 9vs NYY1

Jul 10vs SEA1

Jul 11vs SEA0

Jul 12vs SEA0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.06562 PA

Season.028399 PA

Last 2 Years.0231283 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.024

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.023353 PA

Season.0232229 PA

Last 2 Years.0246167 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.381

Hard-Hit %41%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.323

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-6

Home Runs0 in 6 PA

Career Average.167

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.323

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Junior Caminero's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Recent Form🔥 7-game hitting streak

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.047

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.07739 PA

Season.061279 PA

Last 2 Years.042861 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 7vs HOU0

Jul 8vs HOU1

Jul 10vs NYY0

Jul 11vs NYY0

Jul 12vs NYY0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.021

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00050 PA

Season.018229 PA

Last 2 Years.021749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.038261 PA

Season.0241800 PA

Last 2 Years.0254554 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -4%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.347

Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.281

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-9

Home Runs0 in 10 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances10

HR · K · BB0 · 3 · 1

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.234

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

CJ Abrams's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.043

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00035 PA

Season.047256 PA

Last 2 Years.047659 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 6vs COL0

Jul 7vs COL0

Jul 8vs COL0

Jul 11vs AZ0

Jul 12vs AZ0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.021

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00050 PA

Season.018229 PA

Last 2 Years.021749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.038261 PA

Season.0241800 PA

Last 2 Years.0254554 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -4%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.362

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.281

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-12

Home Runs0 in 15 PA

Career Average.133

Plate Appearances15

HR · K · BB0 · 5 · 3

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.225

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Max Muncy's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2.4× / ~1.6×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Recent Form🔥 8-game hitting streak

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.053

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.13023 PA

Season.061132 PA

Last 2 Years.054277 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ TB0

Jul 9@ TB2

Jul 10@ WSH1

Jul 11@ WSH0

Jul 12@ WSH0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.015

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00014 PA

Season.008126 PA

Last 2 Years.011381 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.020

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.024211 PA

Season.0211341 PA

Last 2 Years.0183598 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -4%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.332

Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.220

Hard-Hit % Allowed27%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.222

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Ben Rice's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.036

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.02836 PA

Season.040278 PA

Last 2 Years.036881 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 7vs COL0

Jul 8vs COL0

Jul 10vs AZ0

Jul 11vs AZ0

Jul 12vs AZ0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.021

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00050 PA

Season.018229 PA

Last 2 Years.021749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.038261 PA

Season.0241800 PA

Last 2 Years.0254554 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.377

Hard-Hit %39%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.281

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head6-for-19

Home Runs0 in 20 PA

Career Average.300

Plate Appearances20

HR · K · BB0 · 4 · 1

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.213

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Freddie Freeman's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.038

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.2005 PA

Season.04687 PA

Last 2 Years.036192 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 17@ AZ0

Jul 8@ TEX1

Jul 9@ TEX0

Jul 11@ MIN0

Jul 12@ MIN0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.06562 PA

Season.028399 PA

Last 2 Years.0231283 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.024

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.023353 PA

Season.0232229 PA

Last 2 Years.0246167 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.337

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.323

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Home Runs0 in 3 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances3

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.212

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Mike Trout's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.038

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04347 PA

Season.046262 PA

Last 2 Years.036781 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.021

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00050 PA

Season.018229 PA

Last 2 Years.021749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.038261 PA

Season.0241800 PA

Last 2 Years.0254554 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.353

Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.281

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head3-for-10

Home Runs1 in 11 PA

Career Average.273

Plate Appearances11

HR · K · BB1 · 3 · 1

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.185

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brandon Marsh's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.040

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.02638 PA

Season.042189 PA

Last 2 Years.043540 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ PIT0

Jul 9@ PIT0

Jul 10@ STL0

Jul 11@ STL0

Jul 12@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.021

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00050 PA

Season.018229 PA

Last 2 Years.021749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.038261 PA

Season.0241800 PA

Last 2 Years.0254554 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.336

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.281

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-5

Home Runs0 in 5 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances5

HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.165

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Drake Baldwin's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.023

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.04522 PA

Season.030101 PA

Last 2 Years.015323 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ NYM0

Jul 9@ NYM1

Jul 10@ BAL0

Jul 11@ BAL0

Jul 12@ BAL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.06562 PA

Season.028399 PA

Last 2 Years.0231283 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.024

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.023353 PA

Season.0232229 PA

Last 2 Years.0246167 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.357

Hard-Hit %45%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.323

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-6

Home Runs0 in 6 PA

Career Average.167

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.158

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bobby Witt Jr.'s full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.041

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00038 PA

Season.040297 PA

Last 2 Years.046878 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 6vs COL0

Jul 7vs COL0

Jul 10vs AZ1

Jul 11vs AZ0

Jul 12vs AZ0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.018

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00025 PA

Season.006172 PA

Last 2 Years.019691 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.025

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.033240 PA

Season.0211653 PA

Last 2 Years.0254747 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.328

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.270

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-10

Home Runs0 in 12 PA

Career Average.083

Plate Appearances12

HR · K · BB0 · 4 · 1

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.149

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Andy Pages's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.033

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00017 PA

Season.029138 PA

Last 2 Years.037381 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ TB0

Jul 9@ TB0

Jul 10@ WSH0

Jul 11@ WSH0

Jul 12@ WSH0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.015

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00014 PA

Season.008126 PA

Last 2 Years.011381 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.020

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.024211 PA

Season.0211341 PA

Last 2 Years.0183598 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -4%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.342

Hard-Hit %30%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.220

Hard-Hit % Allowed27%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-5

Home Runs0 in 6 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 1

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.117

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Cody Bellinger's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.031

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05338 PA

Season.034234 PA

Last 2 Years.028776 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8@ PIT0

Jul 9@ PIT0

Jul 10@ STL0

Jul 11@ STL0

Jul 12@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.021

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00050 PA

Season.018229 PA

Last 2 Years.021749 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L6–4

ERA2.56

WHIP1.13

IP98.1

H / K / BB67 / 148 / 44

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.038261 PA

Season.0241800 PA

Last 2 Years.0254554 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -4%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.310

Hard-Hit %29%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.281

Hard-Hit % Allowed31%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head3-for-12

Home Runs0 in 13 PA

Career Average.231

Plate Appearances13

HR · K · BB0 · 3 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.106

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Ozzie Albies's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Recent Form🔥 7-game hitting streak

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.028

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00011 PA

Season.028106 PA

Last 2 Years.027367 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 7@ SF0

Jul 8@ SF0

Jul 10@ SD0

Jul 11@ SD0

Jul 12@ SD1

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.06562 PA

Season.028399 PA

Last 2 Years.0231283 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.024

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.023353 PA

Season.0232229 PA

Last 2 Years.0246167 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.333

Hard-Hit %24%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.323

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head4-for-12

Home Runs1 in 12 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances12

HR · K · BB1 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.085

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Ernie Clement's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.022

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00019 PA

Season.016124 PA

Last 2 Years.021384 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 8vs ATH0

Jul 9vs ATH0

Jul 10vs PHI0

Jul 11vs PHI0

Jul 12vs PHI0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.015

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00014 PA

Season.008126 PA

Last 2 Years.011381 PA

Opposing Starter · Season20 GS

W–L11–4

ERA2.62

WHIP1.19

IP127.1

H / K / BB126 / 144 / 25

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.020

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.024211 PA

Season.0211341 PA

Last 2 Years.0183598 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.315

Hard-Hit %30%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.220

Hard-Hit % Allowed27%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-6

Home Runs0 in 6 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 3 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.073

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Riley Greene's full player page →

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Juan Soto (NL) is the top home runs matchup on the Tuesday, July 14, 2026 board at 100, with Kyle Schwarber (NL) and Shea Langeliers (AL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Juan Soto

Juan Soto (NL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dylan Cease. The lefty is going deep on .079 HR/PA against righties this year — and .105 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Dylan Cease has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 12 career PA against Dylan Cease, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Kyle Schwarber (NL) (91) vs RHP Dylan Cease: elite bat at .070 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Shea Langeliers (AL) (78) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: big-time bat at .063 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.065).
Yordan Alvarez (AL) (65) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: big-time bat at .058 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Junior Caminero (AL) (60) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: big-time bat at .055 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.065).
CJ Abrams (NL) (38) vs RHP Dylan Cease: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Max Muncy (NL) (36) vs RHP Dylan Cease: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
Ben Rice (AL) (36) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: big-time bat at .053 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.

Platoon edges to target

Juan Soto (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
Shea Langeliers (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .071 against lefties this year.
Junior Caminero (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .056 against lefties this year.
CJ Abrams (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Tuesday, July 14, 2026)?: Juan Soto (NL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Dylan Cease. Elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Tuesday, July 14, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Tuesday, July 14, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Kyle Schwarber (91), Shea Langeliers (78), Yordan Alvarez (65), Junior Caminero (60). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Juan Soto (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year. Shea Langeliers (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .071 against lefties this year. Junior Caminero (AL) — righty bat vs LHP, .056 against lefties this year. CJ Abrams (NL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a home run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a home run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays