MLB moneyline & run totals — Tuesday, July 21, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (53%, n=493) and game total (52%, n=463), but it's beating the book on its strongest team-total leans — 64% at +14% ROI over 89 graded plays (the ones we surface). Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
◆ Strongest leans — our biggest ML · total · team-total · NRFI disagreements →
MINMinnesota Twins42%+136fair+129mktModel lean+0.2%
CLECleveland Guardians58%-136fair-150mkt-0.2%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers45%+123fair+114mkt-0.1%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%-123fair-134mktModel lean+0.1%
PITPittsburgh Pirates43%+132fair+126mktModel lean+0.6%
NYYNew York Yankees57%-132fair-148mkt-0.6%
TBTampa Bay Rays45%+122fair-114mkt-6.1%
TORToronto Blue Jays55%-122fair-104mktModel lean+6.1%
BALBaltimore Orioles55%-123fair+118mktModel lean+11.0%
BOSBoston Red Sox45%+123fair-138mkt-11.0%
SDSan Diego Padres20%+404fair+122mkt-23.4%
ATLAtlanta Braves80%-404fair-144mktModel lean+23.4%
SFSan Francisco Giants61%-159fair-110mktModel lean+11.1%
KCKansas City Royals39%+159fair-108mkt-11.1%
NYMNew York Mets38%+166fair+123mkt-5.6%
MILMilwaukee Brewers62%-166fair-145mktModel lean+5.6%
DETDetroit Tigers51%-103fair-100mktModel lean+2.7%
CHCChicago Cubs49%+103fair-118mkt-2.7%
CWSChicago White Sox70%-231fair+110mktModel lean+23.9%
TEXTexas Rangers30%+231fair-128mkt-23.9%
MIAMiami Marlins49%+103fair+106mktModel lean+2.5%
HOUHouston Astros51%-103fair-125mkt-2.5%
WSHWashington Nationals51%-103fair-110mktModel lean+0.4%
COLColorado Rockies49%+103fair-106mkt-0.4%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals48%+107fair-112mkt-2.5%
LAALos Angeles Angels52%-107fair-105mktModel lean+2.5%
ATHAthletics44%+127fair+115mkt-0.8%
AZArizona Diamondbacks56%-127fair-135mktModel lean+0.8%
CINCincinnati Reds52%-109fair-104mktModel lean+3.2%
SEASeattle Mariners48%+109fair-113mkt-3.2%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.
MLB moneyline & team totals — FAQ
How accurate is MatchWiz's MLB moneyline and run-total model?
We grade every game against the result and post the record right on the board. Moneylines and game totals are efficient markets, so the model grades near break-even there and we treat those as transparency, not plays. Team totals are a softer market — that's where it's finding a real edge.
What's a team total, and why does the model bet it?
A team total is the over/under on one club's runs, not the whole game. It's a softer, less-efficient market than the moneyline, so our run projections find more room there. When our projected runs gap the line enough, we post it as a play with recommended units.
How does the run-total (over/under) projection work?
We project each side's runs from its lineup against the starter and bullpen, plus park and weather, then sum both sides for the game total and set it beside the market line. Over or under is just which side of that line we land on. The exact weighting is proprietary and tuned weekly.
Are these MLB betting picks?
No. Every number here is a graded research signal from our model, shown against the market and honest about its record. Not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).