Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, May 21, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.5 BF
Expected batters faced9.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)22.9%1.6
2. Aaron Judge (R)22.7%1.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)21.9%1.0
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)21.9%1.0
5. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.6%1.0
6. Spencer Jones (L)22.5%1.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)18.2%1.0
8. Anthony Volpe (R)19.5%1.0
9. J.C. Escarra (L)16.6%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+825—
We project 1.8 H vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.7%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.1 BF
Expected batters faced14.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)22.5%2.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)20.1%2.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)20.8%2.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)24.1%2.0
5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)25.0%2.0
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)22.3%1.1
7. Gabriel Moreno (R)22.6%1.0
8. Jose Fernandez (R)25.1%1.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)22.7%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 8.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+1800—
We project 3.3 H vs the 8.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB16.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.0 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)23.7%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)23.0%3.0
3. Daulton Varsho (L)22.8%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)22.9%2.4
5. Ernie Clement (R)24.0%2.0
6. Andrés Giménez (L)20.1%2.0
7. Myles Straw (R)21.0%2.0
8. Brandon Valenzuela (R)21.8%2.0
9. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOLBetOnline-103—
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-103-128
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 4.0 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.1 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Daniel Schneemann (L)20.3%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)19.6%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)21.5%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)19.1%2.6
5. Travis Bazzana (L)25.0%2.0
6. Angel Martínez (L)22.0%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)19.4%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)18.1%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (L)23.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline+117—
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+109-145
We project 4.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB18.2%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.2 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (L)25.0%3.0
2. Liam Hicks (L)23.2%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)24.4%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)19.8%2.2
5. Jakob Marsee (L)21.2%2.0
6. Christopher Morel (R)19.0%2.0
7. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.1%2.0
8. Pete Fairbanks (R)22.5%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline+102—
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+108-144
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 4.2 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.0%
vs RHB18.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.3 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Alika Williams (R)21.6%3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)25.0%3.0
3. Nick Kurtz (L)23.6%3.0
4. Brent Rooker (R)21.1%3.0
5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.7%3.0
6. Zack Gelof (R)22.3%2.9
7. Henry Bolte (R)20.9%2.0
8. Darell Hernaiz (R)22.1%2.0
9. Lawrence Butler (L)18.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOLBetOnline-132—
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-141+106
We project 4.3 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.7% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.3%
vs RHB20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.5 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Vierling (R)21.8%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.4%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)18.9%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)25.4%2.8
5. Gage Workman (L)22.1%2.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)20.2%2.0
7. Wenceel Pérez (R)22.8%2.0
8. Colt Keith (L)21.4%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)20.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline+124—
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+115-153
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 4.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB25.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.3 BF
Expected batters faced20.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)19.7%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)22.8%3.0
3. Jorbit Vivas (L)22.6%2.3
4. CJ Abrams (L)24.9%2.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)21.4%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)21.9%2.0
7. Luis García Jr. (L)24.2%2.0
8. José Tena (L)22.1%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)26.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-154—
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-167+125
We project 4.6 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.1 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)23.0%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)21.5%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)26.0%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)24.1%3.0
5. Nolan Gorman (L)20.0%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)20.8%2.9
7. José Fermín (R)21.7%2.0
8. Pedro Pagés (R)20.6%2.0
9. Yohel Pozo (R)24.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-154—
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-154+116
We project 5.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.2 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Oneil Cruz (L)21.8%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.6%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)21.0%3.0
4. Spencer Horwitz (L)25.6%3.0
5. Konnor Griffin (R)23.9%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)18.1%2.3
7. Jake Mangum (L)22.6%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)22.3%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)16.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+118—
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+105-139
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 5.2 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.2 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)19.5%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)19.0%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)24.6%3.0
4. Vaughn Grissom (R)21.4%3.0
5. Jo Adell (R)21.6%3.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)21.1%3.0
7. Jorge Soler (R)18.5%2.7
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)17.4%2.0
9. Adam Frazier (L)22.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+139—
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+117-155
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 5.2 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.7%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.3 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)25.4%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)21.6%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)24.9%3.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)20.3%3.0
5. Brett Baty (L)23.4%2.1
6. Marcus Semien (R)22.5%2.0
7. A.J. Ewing (L)24.0%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)19.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)20.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+128—
DKDraftKings+125-166
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 5.3 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.1%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)24.6%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)20.3%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)24.2%3.0
4. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.7%3.0
5. Kyle Karros (R)22.2%3.0
6. Jake McCarthy (L)24.1%3.0
7. Mickey Moniak (L)21.2%2.7
8. Troy Johnston (L)19.9%2.0
9. TJ Rumfield (L)23.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-135—
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-148+111
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 5.6 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.7%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.9 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Eli White (R)22.7%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)26.5%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)22.5%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)20.7%3.0
5. Dominic Smith (L)27.7%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)21.5%3.0
7. Mauricio Dubón (R)22.8%3.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)20.5%2.5
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)23.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-145—
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-131-102
We project 5.9 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
13 with a HLive count — updates as games play
1
Sandy AlcantaraP
MIAvsATL· proj #14
9HFinal
2
José SorianoP
LAAvsATH· proj #6
6HFinal
T2
Dustin MayP
STLvsPIT· proj #10
6HFinal
4
Casey MizeP
DETvsCLE· proj #4
4HFinal
T4
Spencer StriderP
ATL@MIA· proj #5
4HFinal
T4
David PetersonP
NYM@WSH· proj #8
4HFinal
T4
Braxton AshcraftP
PIT@STL· proj #9
4HFinal
T4
Cade CavalliP
WSHvsNYM· proj #12
4HFinal
T4
Eduardo RodriguezP
AZvsCOL· proj #13
4HFinal
10
Carlos RodónP
NYYvsTOR· proj #3
3HFinal
T10
Joey CantilloP
CLE@DET· proj #7
3HFinal
T10
Luis SeverinoP
ATH@LAA· proj #11
3HFinal
13
Zach AgnosP
COL@AZ· proj #2
1HFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
5/5100%
season 43%+57 pts-26% ROI
Top 10
5/1050%
season 46%+4 pts-21% ROI
Top 20
8/1457%
season building
Top 50
8/1457%
season building
Full slate
8/1457%
season 48%+9 pts-15% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026
Braydon Fisher (TOR) is the top hits allowed spot on the Thursday, May 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.8 H, with Zach Agnos (COL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Braydon Fisher
Braydon Fisher (TOR) tops the Thursday, May 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.8 H vs NYY. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Zach Agnos (COL) (65) — about 3.3 H vs AZ.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) (46) — about 4.0 H vs TOR.
Casey Mize (DET) (45) — about 4.1 H vs CLE.
Spencer Strider (ATL) (42) — about 4.2 H vs MIA.
José Soriano (LAA) (39) — about 4.3 H vs ATH.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 3.5 H. Braydon Fisher finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the hits allowed board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Thursday, May 21, 2026)?
Braydon Fisher (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.8 H against NYY.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, May 21, 2026: Braydon Fisher (~1.8 H), Zach Agnos (~3.3 H), Carlos Rodón (~4.0 H), Casey Mize (~4.1 H), Spencer Strider (~4.2 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated?
Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
