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Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 slate — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Our top 5 starts went 2/2 (100%) on the mark, against 48% on the season.

Top 5
2/2100%
season 48%
Top 10
3/743%
season 48%
Full slate
8/2730%
season 49%

Top call Jared Jones came through. Shane McClanahan didn't.

Final · 10–0TORTORawaySFSFhomeTop matchup37Final · 9–7CHCCHCawayBALBALhomeTop matchup35Final · 1–6ATHATHawayDETDEThomeTop matchup39Final · 3–0ATLATLawayPITPIThomeTop matchup45Final · 0–2SEASEAawayMIAMIAhomeTop matchup35Final · 0–3NYYNYYawayTBTBhomeTop matchup41Final · 2–8HOUHOUawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup39Final · 2–6KCKCawayNYMNYMhomeTop matchup100Final · 5–11PHIPHIawayCINCINhomeTop matchup48Final · 5–0BOSBOSawayCWSCWShomeTop matchup31Final · 5–6CLECLEawayMINMINhomeTop matchup28Final · 1–5MILMILawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup39Final · 13–1LAALAAawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup40Final · 4–10AZAZawaySDSDhomeTop matchup41Final · 3–4COLCOLawayLADLADhomeTop matchup42
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload9.5 BF

Expected batters faced9.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)23.4%1.6
2. Juan Soto (L)22.4%1.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)26.2%1.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)22.9%1.0
5. Carson Benge (L)23.3%1.0
6. Jorge Polanco (L)21.9%1.0
7. Jared Young (L)21.8%1.0
8. Brett Baty (L)22.0%1.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.1%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Steven Cruz's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.6%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.7 BF

Expected batters faced19.7
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)22.0%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)23.0%2.7
3. JJ Bleday (L)20.1%2.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)22.3%2.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)21.0%2.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R)22.0%2.0
7. Jose Trevino (R)24.4%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.5%2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Alan Rangel's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)25.6%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)21.6%2.5
3. Matt Olson (L)22.9%2.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)22.1%2.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)23.7%2.0
6. Austin Riley (R)22.1%2.0
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)20.7%2.0
8. Joey Bart (R)22.0%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-115-115
FANFanatics-120-120

We project 4.4 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jared Jones's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)22.0%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)25.0%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)20.6%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)19.9%2.4
5. Salvador Perez (R)21.0%2.0
6. Michael Massey (L)23.5%2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R)20.7%2.0
8. Isaac Collins (L)22.8%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)26.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-110-121
FANFanatics-115-125

We project 4.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Christian Scott's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.0 BF

Expected batters faced20.0
From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.0%3.0
2. Tommy Edman (L)20.8%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)25.9%2.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)24.4%2.0
5. Max Muncy (L)21.5%2.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R)21.9%2.0
7. Kyle Tucker (L)21.8%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)22.2%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gabriel Hughes's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.0%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)25.5%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)21.4%3.0
3. Amed Rosario (R)23.3%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)23.5%3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (R)20.6%2.0
6. Anthony Volpe (R)21.0%2.0
7. Max Schuemann (R)19.7%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)19.8%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+102-135
FANFanatics+105-150

We project 4.6 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane McClanahan's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)23.2%3.0
2. Ildemaro Vargas (L)21.6%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)20.7%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)24.5%3.0
5. Max Kepler (L)20.3%3.0
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)22.2%2.6
7. Nolan Arenado (R)22.2%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)20.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-116-114

We project 4.6 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael King's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.4%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)21.0%3.0
2. Josh Smith (L)22.4%3.0
3. Jake Burger (R)23.1%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.0%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.2%3.0
6. Evan Carter (L)20.7%2.7
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)21.3%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)20.5%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-144+108
FANFanatics-140+100

We project 4.6 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Walbert Ureña's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.4 BF

Expected batters faced20.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)25.8%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.3%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)22.4%2.4
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)24.8%2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)25.9%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)26.4%2.0
7. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.9%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)21.9%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+112-149

We project 4.6 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.7%
vs RHB22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Masyn Winn (R)22.9%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)22.3%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)24.0%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)22.5%2.2
5. Alec Burleson (L)21.3%2.0
6. José Fermín (R)24.0%2.0
7. Blaze Jordan (R)21.5%2.0
8. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.6%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-132-101
FANFanatics-135-105

We project 4.7 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Harrison's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.0%
vs RHB19.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)22.5%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)22.9%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)21.6%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.5%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)24.8%3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)21.5%2.6
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)24.8%2.0
8. Carlos Cortes (L)24.3%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+121-161

We project 4.7 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Troy Melton's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)21.2%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)27.4%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)23.0%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)22.3%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)24.7%2.5
6. Dylan Crews (R)19.0%2.0
7. Jorbit Vivas (L)21.3%2.0
8. José Tena (L)23.7%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+119-158

We project 4.7 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Spencer Arrighetti's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.3%
vs RHB20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)23.3%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)26.9%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.6%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)23.6%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)24.2%2.8
6. Willy Adames (R)23.0%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)20.9%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)22.2%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-110-121
FANFanatics-105-135

We project 4.7 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Dylan Cease's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)24.5%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.4%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)22.1%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)22.2%2.5
5. Ty France (R)21.7%2.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L)23.2%2.0
7. Samad Taylor (R)23.3%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.9%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-154+116
FANFanatics-155+110

We project 4.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jose Cabrera's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)23.4%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)24.8%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)22.4%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)21.9%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)21.6%2.9
6. Yainer Diaz (R)24.0%2.0
7. Brice Matthews (R)20.0%2.0
8. Zach Dezenzo (R)20.4%2.0
9. Nick Allen (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-109-121
FANFanatics-110-130

We project 4.8 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Foster Griffin's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.9%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)21.2%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)21.4%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)23.0%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)20.1%2.6
5. Josh Naylor (L)23.9%2.0
6. Luke Raley (L)20.2%2.0
7. Cole Young (L)22.9%2.0
8. Victor Robles (R)24.4%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-166+125

We project 4.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tyler Phillips's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.7%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.8%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)22.3%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)21.1%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)20.9%2.3
6. Nico Hoerner (R)23.1%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)20.6%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)21.3%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-101-131

We project 4.9 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Dean Kremer's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)24.4%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)24.3%3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (L)23.7%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)26.0%2.9
5. Kyle Karros (R)21.9%2.0
6. Troy Johnston (L)25.6%2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)20.1%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.0%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-145+109
FANFanatics-125-115

We project 5.0 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Roki Sasaki's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)20.8%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)23.1%3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L)23.2%3.0
4. Chase Meidroth (R)23.3%3.0
5. Sam Antonacci (L)21.6%2.6
6. Braden Montgomery (R)22.4%2.0
7. Junior Perez (R)22.5%2.0
8. Kyle Teel (L)20.7%2.0
9. Luisangel Acuña (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+116-154
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 5.0 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jake Bennett's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Bryce Harper (L)22.8%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)21.3%3.0
3. Brandon Marsh (L)25.1%3.0
4. Bryson Stott (L)23.7%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)22.8%2.9
6. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.5%2.0
7. Justin Crawford (L)23.9%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.2%2.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-112-118
FANFanatics-110-130

We project 5.0 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Chase Burns's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.8%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Vierling (R)22.7%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)23.8%3.0
3. Kevin McGonigle (L)23.6%3.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R)23.4%3.0
5. Riley Greene (L)20.5%2.4
6. Hao-Yu Lee (R)24.3%2.0
7. Ben Malgeri (R)22.5%2.0
8. Jahmai Jones (R)21.1%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+113-150
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 5.1 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jeffrey Springs's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.9%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. David Fry (R)19.6%3.0
2. Chase DeLauter (L)26.2%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (R)20.8%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)19.4%3.0
5. Travis Bazzana (L)19.9%3.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R)21.9%2.9
7. Kyle Manzardo (L)20.6%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)21.2%2.0
9. Kahlil Watson (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-117-113

We project 5.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Connor Prielipp's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)21.6%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)23.6%3.0
3. Jake Bauers (L)21.6%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)24.1%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)23.0%3.0
6. Luis Lara (L)22.5%2.2
7. Cooper Pratt (R)21.5%2.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R)21.5%2.0
9. Greg Jones (L)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-157+118

We project 5.2 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael McGreevy's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)24.2%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)22.5%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)22.5%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)24.4%3.0
5. Denzer Guzman (R)20.5%3.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R)21.1%3.0
7. Jose Siri (R)22.5%2.1
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)22.4%2.0
9. Josh Lowe (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOVBovada-130-110
DKDraftKings-126-105

We project 5.2 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB25.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)23.9%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)22.6%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)22.0%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)22.7%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)22.0%2.7
6. Victor Caratini (L)22.7%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)24.8%2.0
8. Alan Roden (L)20.0%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-110-121
FANFanatics-140+100

We project 5.3 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Slade Cecconi's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.5%
vs RHB23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)24.9%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)25.1%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)23.7%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)20.6%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)23.8%2.6
6. Chandler Simpson (L)25.7%2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)22.6%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)20.9%2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+110-146

We project 5.3 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Gerrit Cole's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.9%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)22.5%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)24.4%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.0%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)23.6%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)25.1%2.8
6. Caleb Durbin (R)22.4%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)22.3%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)20.2%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+111-148

We project 5.3 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Davis Martin's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.7%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)23.0%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L)21.3%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)20.5%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)23.5%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.3%3.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L)20.8%2.4
7. Colton Cowser (L)20.8%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)22.2%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-118
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+109-144
FANFanatics-115-125

We project 5.4 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Colin Rea's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.1%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)25.2%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)24.3%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)23.9%3.0
4. George Springer (R)22.9%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)20.3%3.0
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)21.4%2.9
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)22.3%2.0
8. Jonatan Clase (L)22.7%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-154+116

We project 5.7 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Logan Webb's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.3%
vs RHB23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.9 BF

Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)25.1%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)26.7%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L)26.2%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)24.3%3.0
5. Owen Caissie (L)22.4%3.0
6. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.3%3.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)20.2%2.9
8. Joe Mack (L)23.3%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+115-153

We project 6.4 H vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

George Kirby's full player page →

What the hits allowed board is

The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His hit-suppression vs this lineup.
  • The park.
  • Projected batters faced.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.

How to use it

Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays