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Hits Allowed Board · Archive

Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, July 7, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Our top 5 starts went 1/3 (33%) on the mark, against 49% on the season.

Top 5
1/333%
season 49%
Top 10
3/743%
season 48%
Full slate
12/2843%
season 50%

Top call Andrew Alvarez came through. Spencer Miles didn't.

Final · 4–3MILMILawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup100Final · 5–2CHCCHCawayBALBALhomeTop matchup35Final · 5–6SEASEAawayMIAMIAhomeTop matchup17Final · 4–12ATLATLawayPITPIThomeTop matchup35Final · 2–6ATHATHawayDETDEThomeTop matchup35Final · 4–6NYYNYYawayTBTBhomeTop matchup76Final · 6–3HOUHOUawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup60Final · 16–12KCKCawayNYMNYMhomeTop matchup100Final · 4–1PHIPHIawayCINCINhomeTop matchup34Final · 1–3CLECLEawayMINMINhomeTop matchup46Final · 8–1BOSBOSawayCWSCWShomeTop matchup38Final · 10–2MILMILawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup32Final · 3–8LAALAAawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup37Final · 1–4AZAZawaySDSDhomeTop matchup19Final · 9–3TORTORawaySFSFhomeTop matchup100Final · 4–3COLCOLawayLADLADhomeTop matchup5
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB18.8%
vs RHB23.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload10.1 BF

Expected batters faced10.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)21.5%2.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)23.5%1.1
3. Brice Turang (L)24.1%1.0
4. William Contreras (R)23.9%1.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)21.5%1.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)23.1%1.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)23.5%1.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)20.7%1.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)21.0%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matt Svanson's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload12.4 BF

Expected batters faced12.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)23.2%2.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)26.9%2.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.4%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)23.5%1.4
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)24.4%1.0
6. Willy Adames (R)22.9%1.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)20.7%1.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R)24.2%1.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.5%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100

We project 2.7 H vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Spencer Miles's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload10.8 BF

Expected batters faced10.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)24.1%2.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)25.0%1.8
3. Lane Thomas (R)21.5%1.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)24.3%1.0
5. Jac Caglianone (L)21.6%1.0
6. Nick Loftin (R)21.8%1.0
7. Isaac Collins (R)21.2%1.0
8. Michael Massey (L)22.1%1.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)24.7%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cionel Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.2%
vs RHB19.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.4 BF

Expected batters faced17.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)20.5%2.0
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)26.3%2.0
3. Ben Rice (L)20.1%2.0
4. Amed Rosario (R)23.1%2.0
5. Cody Bellinger (L)23.4%2.0
6. José Caballero (R)20.9%2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)20.9%2.0
8. Max Schuemann (R)19.4%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)22.0%1.4

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 3.3 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Ian Seymour's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.0%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.2 BF

Expected batters faced18.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)23.8%2.2
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)25.3%2.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)22.4%2.0
4. Christian Walker (R)22.1%2.0
5. Cam Smith (R)22.2%2.0
6. Zach Dezenzo (R)21.1%2.0
7. Brice Matthews (R)19.7%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)21.5%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
DKDraftKings-134+101
FANFanatics-125-115

We project 3.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Alvarez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)23.0%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (R)22.4%3.0
3. Josh Bell (R)21.2%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)21.0%3.0
5. Victor Caratini (R)21.2%2.0
6. Kody Clemens (L)20.4%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)19.5%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)20.0%2.0
9. Kyler Fedko (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-114-116
FANFanatics-130-110

We project 4.3 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB16.5%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)22.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)22.1%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)24.8%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)22.2%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.0%3.0
6. Bryan Torres (L)22.7%3.0
7. Nathan Church (L)21.3%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)22.5%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)19.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob Misiorowski's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB19.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.9 BF

Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)20.9%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)26.9%2.9
3. Curtis Mead (R)23.2%2.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)22.5%2.0
5. Keibert Ruiz (L)24.1%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)24.9%2.0
7. Nasim Nuñez (L)21.9%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)21.3%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-166+125

We project 4.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tatsuya Imai's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.2%
vs RHB20.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (R)23.4%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)22.2%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)23.5%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)22.3%2.4
5. Romy Gonzalez (R)25.7%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)21.6%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)21.3%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.7%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-116-114

We project 4.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Noah Schultz's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.8%
vs RHB20.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)21.5%3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L)22.5%3.0
3. Denzer Guzman (R)23.5%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)20.0%3.0
5. Josh Lowe (L)23.3%2.9
6. Jo Adell (R)21.3%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)19.4%2.0
8. Wade Meckler (L)22.5%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+122-162

We project 4.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob deGrom's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)23.8%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R)21.8%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.0%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)20.4%2.4
5. Coby Mayo (R)22.6%2.0
6. Samuel Basallo (L)20.6%2.0
7. Blaze Alexander (R)23.8%2.0
8. Dylan Beavers (L)20.6%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-135+101
FANFanatics-155+110

We project 4.6 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Matthew Boyd's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)20.6%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)21.5%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)26.4%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)23.0%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)24.4%2.9
6. Colby Thomas (R)23.3%2.0
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)24.1%2.0
8. Max Muncy (R)21.8%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-134+101
FANFanatics-130-110

We project 4.6 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.8%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)26.1%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.2%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)22.7%2.6
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)24.8%2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)25.1%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)25.9%2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)20.9%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)21.8%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+121-161
FANFanatics+110-155

We project 4.6 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Hurston Waldrep's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.6%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)22.2%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)22.7%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)19.8%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)22.0%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.0%3.0
6. Spencer Steer (R)20.7%2.4
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)23.8%2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L)21.2%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-129-103

We project 4.6 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Zack Wheeler's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.1%
vs RHB22.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.3 BF

Expected batters faced20.3
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)21.5%3.0
2. Luis Lara (L)22.5%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)24.1%2.3
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)22.2%2.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)21.5%2.0
6. Gary Sánchez (R)20.8%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)23.5%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)20.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+104-139

We project 4.7 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Hunter Dobbins's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.9%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)22.5%3.0
2. Kahlil Watson (L)24.1%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)22.4%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)21.1%3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)20.3%2.6
6. Brayan Rocchio (L)23.4%2.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)21.1%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)21.1%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOVBovada-130-110
DKDraftKings-128-104

We project 4.7 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)25.3%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)21.2%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.0%3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)22.1%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)23.4%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)24.3%2.3
7. Austin Riley (R)22.3%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)20.6%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-153+115

We project 4.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Paul Skenes's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.0%
vs RHB19.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)24.6%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)24.3%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)24.3%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)21.8%2.9
5. Brandon Valenzuela (L)21.0%2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)20.6%2.0
7. Sean Keys (L)21.4%2.0
8. Jonatan Clase (L)22.5%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-102-129
FANFanatics+105-150

We project 4.8 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Trevor McDonald's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.8%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)21.6%3.0
2. Josh Smith (L)22.3%3.0
3. Jake Burger (R)22.8%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.0%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.2%3.0
6. Evan Carter (L)20.9%2.0
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)21.1%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)20.4%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-143+108
FANFanatics-135-105

We project 5.0 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

José Soriano's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)21.2%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)23.7%3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L)23.5%3.0
4. Chase Meidroth (R)23.6%3.0
5. Sam Antonacci (L)19.8%3.0
6. Junior Perez (R)22.5%2.5
7. Kyle Teel (L)21.1%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)21.9%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-159+120
FANFanatics-165+115

We project 5.0 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Payton Tolle's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.3%
vs RHB25.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)23.5%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)21.7%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)21.3%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)24.4%2.0
5. Max Kepler (L)20.6%2.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R)22.5%2.0
7. Pavin Smith (L)20.8%2.0
8. James McCann (R)22.5%2.0
9. Tim Tawa (R)19.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Germán Márquez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)22.8%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)22.2%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)23.3%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)22.4%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)21.6%2.3
6. Masyn Winn (R)23.3%2.0
7. José Fermín (R)24.0%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)22.1%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-102-130
FANFanatics+110-155

We project 5.1 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Robert Gasser's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)21.1%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)21.1%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)23.5%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)19.7%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)23.8%3.0
6. Luke Raley (L)20.5%3.0
7. Cole Young (L)22.8%2.5
8. Victor Robles (R)24.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-110-121

We project 5.2 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Max Meyer's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.1%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)23.5%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)21.0%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)22.7%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)22.6%3.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.9%3.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)21.2%2.5
7. Bryson Stott (L)22.4%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)22.3%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-116-114
FANFanatics-125-115

We project 5.2 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Abbott's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.7%
vs RHB20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)23.8%3.0
2. Colt Keith (L)23.0%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)25.5%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)22.9%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)23.4%3.0
6. Zach McKinstry (L)22.1%2.5
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)20.1%2.0
8. James Outman (L)17.0%2.0
9. Matt Vierling (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOVBovada-110-130
DKDraftKings-107-124

We project 5.3 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

J.T. Ginn's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)24.2%3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L)24.6%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)27.2%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)26.7%3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)22.0%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)22.4%2.4
7. Jakob Marsee (L)19.6%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)23.7%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOVBovada-130-110
DKDraftKings-125-106
FANFanatics-130-110

We project 5.4 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Bryan Woo's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.9%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.0 BF

Expected batters faced25.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.4%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)21.9%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)21.4%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.0%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)21.2%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)23.1%3.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)20.6%3.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)22.4%2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+101-134

We project 5.4 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Baz's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)24.6%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)25.4%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)23.8%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)20.8%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)26.3%3.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)19.4%2.6
7. Taylor Walls (L)20.8%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)21.3%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-160+120

We project 5.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)22.2%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)23.5%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)23.3%3.0
4. Cole Carrigg (R)24.6%3.0
5. Tyler Freeman (R)23.4%3.0
6. Jake McCarthy (L)25.1%2.9
7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.4%2.0
8. Braxton Fulford (R)21.2%2.0
9. Mickey Moniak (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-118-112
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 5.4 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Justin Wrobleski's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.2%
vs RHB24.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.1%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)22.0%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)25.7%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)21.9%3.0
5. Tommy Edman (L)22.5%2.4
6. Kyle Tucker (L)22.1%2.0
7. Dalton Rushing (L)22.4%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (L)21.3%2.0
9. Miguel Rojas (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-136+103

We project 5.5 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.7%
vs RHB23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)24.5%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)22.9%3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R)22.4%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)22.5%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)22.4%3.0
6. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.3%3.0
7. Luis Campusano (R)21.1%2.3
8. Samad Taylor (R)22.8%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-118
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-113-118
FANFanatics-115-125

We project 5.6 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Zac Gallen's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)22.2%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)22.3%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)26.2%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)23.2%3.0
5. Carson Benge (L)23.3%3.0
6. Jorge Polanco (L)21.4%2.2
7. Jared Young (L)21.2%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)21.9%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOVBovada-130-110
DKDraftKings-124-107
FANFanatics-115-125

We project 5.7 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Seth Lugo's full player page →

What the hits allowed board is

The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His hit-suppression vs this lineup.
  • The park.
  • Projected batters faced.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.

How to use it

Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays