Hits Allowed Board · Today
Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 9, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 24 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Jack Perkins⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.3%
vs RHB 22.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 18.8 BF Expected batters faced 18.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Matt Vierling (R) 21.4% 2.8
2. Dillon Dingler (R) 22.9% 2.0
3. Kevin McGonigle (L) 23.2% 2.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R) 19.5% 2.0
5. Riley Greene (L) 25.3% 2.0
6. Hao-Yu Lee (R) 22.0% 2.0
7. Ben Malgeri (R) 22.5% 2.0
8. Jahmai Jones (R) 20.6% 2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jack Perkins's full player page → 2
Logan Henderson⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 19.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.0%
vs RHB 22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 20.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.9 BF Expected batters faced 19.9
From recent starts 5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Masyn Winn (R) 22.9% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 22.2% 2.9
3. Jordan Walker (R) 22.4% 2.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R) 22.1% 2.0
5. Alec Burleson (L) 24.5% 2.0
6. José Fermín (R) 22.3% 2.0
7. Blaze Jordan (R) 21.7% 2.0
8. Lars Nootbaar (L) 22.3% 2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R) 22.3% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Logan Henderson's full player page → 3
Griffin Canning⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.7%
vs RHB 22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.1 BF Expected batters faced 20.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 23.2% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 21.6% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 20.7% 2.1
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 24.5% 2.0
5. Max Kepler (L) 20.3% 2.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R) 22.2% 2.0
7. Pavin Smith (L) 20.7% 2.0
8. James McCann (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. Tim Tawa (R) 18.7% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Griffin Canning's full player page → 4
Drew Rasmussen⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.3%
vs RHB 20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.0 BF Expected batters faced 23.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 21.3% 3.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 21.3% 3.0
3. Amed Rosario (R) 22.9% 3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 20.8% 3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (L) 22.4% 3.0
6. Anthony Volpe (R) 21.0% 2.0
7. Max Schuemann (R) 20.6% 2.0
8. Austin Wells (L) 19.5% 2.0
9. José Caballero (R) 21.4% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Drew Rasmussen's full player page → 5
Sean Manaea⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.9%
vs RHB 21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.5 BF Expected batters faced 20.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 23.8% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 25.4% 3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L) 21.5% 2.5
4. Lane Thomas (R) 21.8% 2.0
5. Salvador Perez (R) 24.2% 2.0
6. Michael Massey (L) 22.1% 2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R) 21.9% 2.0
8. Isaac Collins (R) 21.3% 2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R) 24.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sean Manaea's full player page → 6
David Peterson⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 24.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.2%
vs RHB 24.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.7 BF Expected batters faced 20.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Gunnar Henderson (L) 20.8% 3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R) 21.9% 3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R) 23.1% 2.7
4. Pete Alonso (R) 20.6% 2.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L) 20.8% 2.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L) 20.3% 2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L) 20.8% 2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R) 24.0% 2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L) 19.8% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
David Peterson's full player page → 7
Bryce Miller⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.3%
vs RHB 20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.0 BF Expected batters faced 21.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Liam Hicks (L) 25.1% 3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R) 26.7% 3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L) 26.2% 3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L) 24.3% 2.0
5. Owen Caissie (L) 22.4% 2.0
6. Heriberto Hernández (R) 22.3% 2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L) 20.2% 2.0
8. Joe Mack (L) 23.3% 2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R) 24.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Bryce Miller's full player page → 8
Gavin Williams⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.2%
vs RHB 23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.0 BF Expected batters faced 23.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.7 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trevor Larnach (L) 23.9% 3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L) 22.6% 3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L) 22.0% 3.0
4. Josh Bell (L) 22.7% 3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R) 22.0% 3.0
6. Victor Caratini (L) 22.7% 2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R) 24.8% 2.0
8. Alan Roden (L) 20.0% 2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R) 22.3% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Gavin Williams's full player page → 9
Anthony Kay⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.4%
vs RHB 23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.6 BF Expected batters faced 21.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (R) 23.4% 3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 22.9% 3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 23.1% 3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R) 22.9% 2.6
5. Masataka Yoshida (L) 21.8% 2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R) 21.1% 2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L) 21.5% 2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R) 22.6% 2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L) 21.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Anthony Kay's full player page → 10
Trevor Rogers⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.9%
vs RHB 21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 22.4% 3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R) 22.2% 3.0
3. Michael Busch (L) 19.9% 3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R) 21.9% 3.0
5. Ian Happ (R) 20.0% 2.9
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 28.0% 2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L) 23.2% 2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R) 24.3% 2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R) 24.8% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Trevor Rogers's full player page → 11
Ryan Feltner⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.0% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.4%
vs RHB 21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.3 BF Expected batters faced 21.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Heliot Ramos (R) 23.3% 3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L) 26.9% 3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R) 22.6% 3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 23.6% 2.3
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 24.2% 2.0
6. Willy Adames (R) 23.0% 2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L) 20.9% 2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L) 22.2% 2.0
9. Eric Haase (R) 21.3% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Ryan Feltner's full player page → 12
Nathan Eovaldi⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.4%
vs RHB 21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.3 BF Expected batters faced 25.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 21.2% 3.0
2. Mike Trout (R) 19.3% 3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R) 22.6% 3.0
4. Jo Adell (R) 21.4% 3.0
5. Denzer Guzman (R) 23.8% 3.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R) 19.6% 3.0
7. Jose Siri (R) 19.6% 3.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 20.0% 2.3
9. Josh Lowe (L) 23.3% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Nathan Eovaldi's full player page → 13
Reid Detmers⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.0%
vs RHB 21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.7 BF Expected batters faced 23.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Joc Pederson (L) 20.8% 3.0
2. Josh Smith (L) 21.4% 3.0
3. Jake Burger (R) 22.2% 3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L) 22.4% 3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R) 22.9% 3.0
6. Evan Carter (L) 20.1% 2.7
7. Alejandro Osuna (L) 22.9% 2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R) 22.4% 2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L) 23.8% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Reid Detmers's full player page → 14
Patrick Sandoval⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.0 BF Expected batters faced 23.0
From recent starts 0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Miguel Vargas (R) 20.8% 3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R) 23.1% 3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L) 23.2% 3.0
4. Chase Meidroth (R) 23.3% 3.0
5. Sam Antonacci (L) 21.6% 3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R) 22.4% 2.0
7. Junior Perez (R) 22.5% 2.0
8. Kyle Teel (L) 20.7% 2.0
9. Luisangel Acuña (R) 21.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Patrick Sandoval's full player page → 15
Bailey Ober⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.1 BF Expected batters faced 24.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. David Fry (R) 20.8% 3.0
2. Chase DeLauter (L) 23.0% 3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (L) 23.0% 3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R) 20.3% 3.0
5. Travis Bazzana (L) 22.2% 3.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R) 21.3% 3.0
7. Kyle Manzardo (L) 20.9% 2.1
8. Austin Hedges (R) 21.0% 2.0
9. Kahlil Watson (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Bailey Ober's full player page → 16
Jesús Luzardo⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.9%
vs RHB 22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (R) 23.9% 3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R) 22.9% 3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L) 22.2% 3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R) 21.0% 3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R) 22.0% 3.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R) 21.2% 3.0
7. Jose Trevino (R) 20.0% 2.5
8. Edwin Arroyo (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L) 20.9% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jesús Luzardo's full player page → 17
Brady Singer⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.6%
vs RHB 22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Bryce Harper (L) 22.8% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 21.3% 3.0
3. Brandon Marsh (L) 25.1% 3.0
4. Bryson Stott (L) 23.7% 3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R) 22.8% 2.5
6. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) 22.5% 2.0
7. Justin Crawford (L) 23.9% 2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R) 22.2% 2.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R) 21.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brady Singer's full player page → 18
Andre Pallante⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.8%
vs RHB 22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Christian Yelich (L) 21.6% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 23.6% 3.0
3. Jake Bauers (L) 21.6% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 24.1% 3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L) 23.0% 3.0
6. Luis Lara (L) 22.5% 2.1
7. Cooper Pratt (R) 21.5% 2.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R) 21.5% 2.0
9. Greg Jones (L) 20.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Andre Pallante's full player page → 19
Framber Valdez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.1%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.2 BF Expected batters faced 24.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.7 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zack Gelof (R) 21.1% 3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L) 21.2% 3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R) 26.2% 3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L) 22.5% 3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R) 24.2% 3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L) 22.7% 3.0
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 22.5% 2.2
8. Carlos Cortes (L) 25.4% 2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R) 22.7% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Framber Valdez's full player page → 20
Mitch Keller⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 25.9%
vs RHB 20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.1 BF Expected batters faced 24.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.7 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Michael Harris II (L) 25.6% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L) 21.6% 3.0
3. Matt Olson (L) 22.9% 3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L) 22.1% 3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 23.7% 3.0
6. Austin Riley (R) 22.1% 3.0
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L) 20.7% 2.1
8. Joey Bart (R) 22.0% 2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R) 20.8% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Mitch Keller's full player page → 21
Merrill Kelly⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.8%
vs RHB 24.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.0 BF Expected batters faced 25.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 24.5% 3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L) 23.2% 3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) 22.3% 3.0
4. Manny Machado (R) 22.1% 3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L) 22.2% 3.0
6. Jake Cronenworth (L) 21.4% 3.0
7. Luis Campusano (R) 21.9% 3.0
8. Samad Taylor (R) 23.3% 2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L) 21.9% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Merrill Kelly's full player page → 22
Janson Junk⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 25.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 27.7%
vs RHB 21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 6.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 21.2% 3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R) 21.4% 3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 23.0% 3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L) 20.1% 3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L) 23.9% 3.0
6. Luke Raley (L) 20.2% 2.2
7. Cole Young (L) 22.9% 2.0
8. Victor Robles (R) 24.4% 2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L) 20.9% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Janson Junk's full player page → 23
Michael Wacha⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.8%
vs RHB 23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.8 BF Expected batters faced 25.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 6.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. A.J. Ewing (L) 23.4% 3.0
2. Juan Soto (L) 22.4% 3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R) 26.2% 3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L) 22.9% 3.0
5. Carson Benge (L) 23.3% 3.0
6. Jorge Polanco (L) 21.9% 3.0
7. Jared Young (L) 21.8% 3.0
8. Brett Baty (L) 22.0% 2.8
9. Francisco Alvarez (R) 22.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Michael Wacha's full player page → 24
Bryce Elder⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.9%
vs RHB 25.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.3 BF Expected batters faced 24.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 6.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (L) 25.8% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 23.3% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 22.4% 3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 24.8% 3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 25.9% 3.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 26.4% 3.0
7. Marcell Ozuna (R) 21.9% 2.3
8. Jared Triolo (R) 21.9% 2.0
9. Henry Davis (R) 19.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Bryce Elder's full player page → Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026 Jack Perkins (ATH) is the top hits allowed spot on the Thursday, July 9, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 4.1 H, with Logan Henderson (MIL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Jack Perkins Jack Perkins (ATH) tops the Thursday, July 9, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 4.1 H vs DET. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Logan Henderson (MIL) (87) — about 4.4 H vs STL. Griffin Canning (SD) (85) — about 4.4 H vs AZ. Drew Rasmussen (TB) (79) — about 4.5 H vs NYY. Sean Manaea (NYM) (76) — about 4.6 H vs KC. David Peterson (CHC) (76) — about 4.6 H vs BAL. How to read the hits allowed board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)? Jack Perkins (ATH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 4.1 H against DET.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today? The top projected starts on Thursday, July 9, 2026: Jack Perkins (~4.1 H), Logan Henderson (~4.4 H), Griffin Canning (~4.4 H), Drew Rasmussen (~4.5 H), Sean Manaea (~4.6 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated? Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the hits allowed board is The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His hit-suppression vs this lineup. The park. Projected batters faced. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.
How to use it Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
