MatchWiz

Max Kepler

Max Kepler — hitting .220 in our graded log with 2 home runs. The model's read on his matchups, and where it's been right.

Last scored board
57.9
Singles · @ BOS · 2026-08-17
Our calls on him · hits
25%
record builds as games settle
Games graded
35
this season, box-score final
Max Kepler
LFBats LThrows LArizona Diamondbacks
Singles57.9/100proj 0.6Hits41.9/100proj 1Doubles41.1/100proj 0.2H+R+RBI34.9/100proj 1.7Runs34.4/100proj 0.5Total Bases33.4/100proj 1.5Stolen Bases30.5/100proj 0.1RBIs30.4/100proj 0.4Fantasy Points29.3/100proj 6.3Walks25.5/100proj 0.3Triples14.1/100proj 0Home Runs13.4/100proj 0.1

Last scored matchup

Max isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 6 days ago, away at Boston Red Sox on Monday, August 17, 2026, where he landed on singles (57.9/100), hits (41.9/100), doubles (41.1/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

Recent form

Max is 5-for-31 (.161) over his last 10 games, in line with his .220 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

He's a left-handed bat

Max hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Max has recorded at least one hit in 16 of 34 games he's batted in — 47% — with 7 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Max is hitting .227 at home (10-for-44) and .215 on the road (14-for-65) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Max's biggest night was Wednesday, August 12, 2026 against COL — 2-for-4. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

No graded record on him yet

We haven't ranked Max a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 4 times so far. He's appeared in 35 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.

Where he lands across our boards

Max was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: singles graded 57.9/100 while home runs came in at 13.4/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Max's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working. For Max specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Wednesday, August 19@ 00010
Sunday, August 16@ ATL41000
Saturday, August 15@ ATL51010
Wednesday, August 12vs COL42000
Monday, August 10vs COL40000
Friday, August 7vs LAD30000
Thursday, August 6vs SD41000
Tuesday, August 4vs SD20000
Monday, August 3vs SD20000
Sunday, August 2@ CLE30000
Friday, July 31@ CLE40000
Wednesday, July 29@ PIT42001

Max Kepler — FAQ

Is Max Kepler playing today?

Max Kepler isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Monday, August 17, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How has Max Kepler been hitting lately?

Max is 5-for-31 (.161) over his last 10 games, against .220 on the season across 109 at-bats in our log, with 2 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Max Kepler appear on?

Max was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — singles, hits, doubles, h+r+rbi, runs. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Max Kepler's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).