Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, August 17, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, August 17, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Monday, August 17, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Chase Meidroth (100), Alec Burleson (86), Bobby Witt Jr. (85), Zack Gelof (83). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, August 17, 2026?

Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 10 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .425 against righties this year. Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .462 against lefties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .517 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .438 against righties this year. Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .424 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Mason Barnett has been getting squared up by righties — .453 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Carter Jensen (KC). RHP Michael Wacha has been getting squared up by righties — .452 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Zack Gelof (ATH), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Jeff McNeil (ATH). RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Max Muncy (LAD). LHP Shota Imanaga has been vulnerable to lefties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase Meidroth (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Miguel Vargas (CWS).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Monday, August 17, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, August 17, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, August 17, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on our total-bases over/under, against 45% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 45%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 45%

Full slate

90/17751%

season 50%

Top call Bobby Witt Jr. came through. Shohei Ohtani didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–1

STLaway

CINhomeTop matchup75 Final · 6–7

BALaway

TBhomeTop matchup76 Final · 5–6

STLaway

CINhomeTop matchup86 Final · 5–6

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup75 Final · 8–5

DETaway

PIThomeTop matchup70 Final · 1–11

AZaway

BOShomeTop matchup59 Final · 1–2

SDaway

NYMhomeTop matchup64 Final · 5–9

ATHaway

KChomeTop matchup85 Final · 2–4

ATLaway

MINhomeTop matchup79 Final · 5–7

CWSaway

CHChomeTop matchup100 Final · 11–5

LADaway

COLhomeTop matchup100

Not starting51 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 249 shownScore

141 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsCWS· 4-for-5
11TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
2
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@COL· 4-for-5
10TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #1
3
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsATH· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #4
4
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsAZ· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #61
T4
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@TB· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #80
T4
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #110
T4
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BAL@TB· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #132
8
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@COL· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #6
T8
Max Muncy3B
LAD@COL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #7
T8
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsBAL· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #19
T8
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@TB· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #51
T8
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@PIT· 2-for-6
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #62
T8
Dane MyersCF
CINvsSTL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #102
T8
Brian NavarretoC
MIA@PHI· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #173
15
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsCWS· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #16
T15
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@CHC· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #23
T15
Andy PagesCF
LAD@COL· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #32
T15
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsCWS· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T15
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsSTL· 3-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T15
Iván HerreraDH
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #50
T15
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #59
T15
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #64
T15
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CIN· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #75
T15
Ryan ViladeRF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #98
T15
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsCWS· 4-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #109
T15
Tommy White3B
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #121
T15
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@PIT· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #126
T15
Jorge MateoSS
TBvsBAL· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #147
T15
Brian ServenC
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #158
T15
Mickey GasperC
BOSvsAZ· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #196
T15
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@CHC· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
32
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsATH· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #11
T32
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T32
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@MIN· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #17
T32
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsBAL· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T32
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsMIA· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #67
T32
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsATL· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #69
T32
Agustín RamírezC
MIA@PHI· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #73
T32
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #74
T32
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsSTL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #86
T32
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@PIT· 3-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T32
Josh BellDH
MINvsATL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T32
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #95
T32
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@PHI· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #111
T32
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@TB· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #125
T32
JJ BledayLF
CINvsSTL· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #130
T32
Adley RutschmanC
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #143
T32
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsAZ· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #152
T32
Nick Yorke3B
PITvsDET· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #164
T32
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@BOS· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #168
51
Matt Olson1B
ATL@MIN· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #9
T51
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CIN· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #25
T51
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@PHI· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #27
T51
Carter JensenC
KCvsATH· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T51
Maikel Garcia3B
KCvsATH· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T51
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@COL· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T51
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #49
T51
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@PHI· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #60
T51
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #68
T51
Tyler O'NeillRF
BAL@TB· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #71
T51
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #76
T51
Otto LopezSS
MIA@PHI· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #82
T51
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@NYM· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
T51
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsDET· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #112
T51
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsDET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #136
T51
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsATL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #145
T51
Michael Toglia1B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #151
T51
Donovan Walton2B
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #171
T51
Max ClarkCF
DET@PIT· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #181
T51
Christian FranklinCF
BAL@TB· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #184
T51
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #185
T51
Zac VeenLF
COLvsLAD· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
73
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #3
T73
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #5
T73
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@CHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #10
T73
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #12
T73
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T73
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATL@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #18
T73
Dillon DinglerC
DET@PIT· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #20
T73
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #21
T73
Henry BolteCF
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #22
T73
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #26
T73
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T73
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T73
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T73
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #46
T73
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
T73
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@CHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #56
T73
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #63
T73
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@BOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #72
T73
Colt Keith3B
DET@PIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T73
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T73
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #83
T73
Ty France1B
SD@NYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #88
T73
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #91
T73
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsSD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T73
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@COL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T73
Michael Massey2B
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #96
T73
Masyn WinnSS
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #99
T73
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #100
T73
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #101
T73
Byron BuxtonCF
MINvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #104
T73
Luis Arraez2B
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #105
T73
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #108
T73
Austin Riley3B
ATL@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #114
T73
Everson PereiraRF
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #115
T73
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@TB· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #116
T73
Ian HappLF
CHCvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #117
T73
Willi Castro2B
COLvsLAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #122
T73
Matt McLain2B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #123
T73
Manny Machado3B
SD@NYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #127
T73
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #129
T73
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsLAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #131
T73
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #138
T73
Bryan TorresLF
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #139
T73
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #140
T73
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@NYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #142
T73
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #144
T73
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #148
T73
Brett CallahanLF
DET@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #149
T73
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #154
T73
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #159
T73
Connor Norby2B
COLvsLAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #166
T73
Carson KellyC
CHCvsCWS· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #169
T73
Jose FernandezDH
AZ@BOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #170
T73
Masyn WinnSS
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #172
T73
Kyle IsbelCF
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #174
T73
Luis RengifoLF
SD@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #179
T73
Alan RodenRF
MINvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #180
T73
Brett SullivanC
COLvsLAD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #182
T73
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #183
T73
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #186
T73
Jorge PolancoDH
NYMvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #187
T73
Héctor RodríguezRF
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #188
T73
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #192
T73
Eli WhiteRF
BOSvsAZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #193
T73
Henry DavisC
PITvsDET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #195
T73
Adael Amador2B
COLvsLAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #197
T73
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T73
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsLAD· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T73
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsBAL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, August 17, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top total bases matchup on the Monday, August 17, 2026 board at 100, with Chase Meidroth (CWS) and Alec Burleson (STL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is racking up bases at .425 TB/PA against righties this year — and .379 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 39% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties lately — .607 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tomoyuki Sugano too — .625 across 8 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Chase Meidroth (CWS) (100) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: a strong bat at .449 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.593).
Alec Burleson (STL) (86) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: an excellent bat at .506 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.485).
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (85) vs RHP Mason Barnett: a solid bat at .402 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.944).
Zack Gelof (ATH) (83) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .452 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.000).
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (83) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a league-average bat at .339 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.607), due to bounce back.
Max Muncy (LAD) (82) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .390 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.607).
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (81) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: a solid bat at .386 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.588).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Mason Barnett has been getting squared up by righties — .453 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Carter Jensen (KC).
RHP Michael Wacha has been getting squared up by righties — .452 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Zack Gelof (ATH), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Jeff McNeil (ATH).
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Max Muncy (LAD).
LHP Shota Imanaga has been vulnerable to lefties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase Meidroth (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Miguel Vargas (CWS).

Platoon edges to target

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .425 against righties this year.
Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .462 against lefties this year.
Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .517 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .438 against righties this year.
Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .424 against righties this year.

How it played out

8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 10 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, August 17, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, August 17, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Monday, August 17, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Chase Meidroth (100), Alec Burleson (86), Bobby Witt Jr. (85), Zack Gelof (83). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, August 17, 2026?: Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 10 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .425 against righties this year. Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .462 against lefties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .517 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .438 against righties this year. Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .424 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Mason Barnett has been getting squared up by righties — .453 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Carter Jensen (KC). RHP Michael Wacha has been getting squared up by righties — .452 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Zack Gelof (ATH), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Jeff McNeil (ATH). RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Max Muncy (LAD). LHP Shota Imanaga has been vulnerable to lefties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase Meidroth (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Miguel Vargas (CWS).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.