Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, August 17, 2026)?

Freddie Freeman (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, August 17, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Monday, August 17, 2026: Freddie Freeman (100), Yandy Díaz (94), Shohei Ohtani (94), Elly De La Cruz (89), Jordan Beck (84). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, August 17, 2026?

Yes — Freddie Freeman got 3 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .290 against lefties this year. Jordan Beck (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .313 against lefties this year. Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .297 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB). LHP Kent Emanuel has been giving up plenty to lefties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Joshua Báez (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL). RHP Janson Junk has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Bryce Harper (PHI). RHP Carmen Mlodzinski has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Gleyber Torres (DET), and Colt Keith (DET).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Monday, August 17, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, August 17, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, August 17, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 67%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 67%

Full slate

136/19869%

season 58%

Top call Freddie Freeman came through. Elly De La Cruz didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–1

STLaway

CINhomeTop matchup89 Final · 6–7

BALaway

TBhomeTop matchup94 Final · 5–6

STLaway

CINhomeTop matchup73 Final · 5–6

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup80 Final · 8–5

DETaway

PIThomeTop matchup74 Final · 1–11

AZaway

BOShomeTop matchup72 Final · 1–2

SDaway

NYMhomeTop matchup56 Final · 5–9

ATHaway

KChomeTop matchup71 Final · 2–4

ATLaway

MINhomeTop matchup69 Final · 5–7

CWSaway

CHChomeTop matchup72 Final · 11–5

LADaway

COLhomeTop matchup100

Not starting51 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 249 shownScore

141 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@COL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T1
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsCWS· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T1
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsCWS· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #133
4
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@COL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T4
Andy PagesCF
LAD@COL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T4
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsMIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T4
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T4
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T4
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T4
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@PIT· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T4
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsAZ· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T4
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsSTL· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T4
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@PIT· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T4
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsCWS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T4
JJ BledayLF
CINvsSTL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T4
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BAL@TB· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #135
T4
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsAZ· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
18
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsBAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T18
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@PIT· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T18
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T18
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@PHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T18
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsBAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T18
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@MIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T18
Otto LopezSS
MIA@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T18
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@PHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T18
Max Muncy3B
LAD@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T18
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T18
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T18
Agustín RamírezC
MIA@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T18
Tyler O'NeillRF
BAL@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T18
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T18
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T18
Dane MyersCF
CINvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T18
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@PHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T18
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T18
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T18
Maikel Garcia3B
KCvsATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T18
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T18
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T18
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T18
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T18
Josh BellDH
MINvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T18
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #121
T18
Max ClarkCF
DET@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #124
T18
Brian NavarretoC
MIA@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #131
T18
Adley RutschmanC
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T18
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #150
T18
Nick Yorke3B
PITvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #155
T18
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T18
Christian FranklinCF
BAL@TB· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T18
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
52
Luis Arraez2B
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T52
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #10
T52
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T52
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T52
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T52
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T52
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T52
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T52
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T52
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T52
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T52
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T52
Iván HerreraDH
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T52
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T52
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T52
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T52
Henry BolteCF
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T52
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T52
Colt Keith3B
DET@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T52
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T52
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T52
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T52
Dillon DinglerC
DET@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #62
T52
Matt Olson1B
ATL@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T52
Masyn WinnSS
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T52
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T52
Byron BuxtonCF
MINvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T52
Willi Castro2B
COLvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T52
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T52
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsDET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T52
Carter JensenC
KCvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T52
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T52
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T52
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #89
T52
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T52
Ty France1B
SD@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T52
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T52
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T52
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T52
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T52
Brett CallahanLF
DET@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T52
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T52
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T52
Ryan ViladeRF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T52
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T52
Michael Toglia1B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #120
T52
Michael Massey2B
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T52
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #123
T52
Tommy White3B
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T52
Everson PereiraRF
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #128
T52
Manny Machado3B
SD@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #130
T52
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #134
T52
Bryan TorresLF
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #136
T52
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #141
T52
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #142
T52
Jose FernandezDH
AZ@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #144
T52
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T52
Masyn WinnSS
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #146
T52
Donovan Walton2B
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #147
T52
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #149
T52
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #151
T52
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #153
T52
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T52
Ian HappLF
CHCvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T52
Matt McLain2B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T52
Jorge MateoSS
TBvsBAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T52
Héctor RodríguezRF
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T52
Austin Riley3B
ATL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T52
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T52
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T52
Brett SullivanC
COLvsLAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #173
T52
Brian ServenC
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T52
Kyle IsbelCF
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T52
Alan RodenRF
MINvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T52
Connor Norby2B
COLvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T52
Luis RengifoLF
SD@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #182
T52
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #183
T52
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #184
T52
Jorge PolancoDH
NYMvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #187
T52
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T52
Mickey GasperC
BOSvsAZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #192
T52
Eli WhiteRF
BOSvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #193
T52
Carson KellyC
CHCvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #194
T52
Henry DavisC
PITvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #195
T52
Adael Amador2B
COLvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T52
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T52
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T52
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsLAD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T52
Zac VeenLF
COLvsLAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T52
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsBAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, August 17, 2026

Freddie Freeman (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Monday, August 17, 2026 board at 100, with Yandy Díaz (TB) and Shohei Ohtani (LAD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is hitting .277 H/PA against righties this year — and .111 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been giving up plenty to righties lately — .250 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .286 in 7 career PA against Tomoyuki Sugano. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Yandy Díaz (TB) (94) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.348), hot bat.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (94) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .239 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hitter's park.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (89) vs LHP Quinn Mathews: a strong bat at .252 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Jordan Beck (COL) (84) vs LHP Blake Snell: a strong bat at .263 into an arm tough on the same side (.182), hitter's park.
Joshua Báez (STL) (83) vs LHP Kent Emanuel: a solid bat at .245 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Cole Carrigg (COL) (83) vs LHP Blake Snell: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm tough on the same side (.182), hitter's park.
Luis Arraez (PHI) (80) vs RHP Janson Junk: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm tough on the same side (.160).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB).
LHP Kent Emanuel has been giving up plenty to lefties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Joshua Báez (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
RHP Janson Junk has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Bryce Harper (PHI).
RHP Carmen Mlodzinski has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Gleyber Torres (DET), and Colt Keith (DET).

Platoon edges to target

Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .290 against lefties this year.
Jordan Beck (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .313 against lefties this year.
Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .297 against lefties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Freddie Freeman (LAD) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), Corbin Carroll (AZ), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT), and Alec Bohm (PHI). Cold but due to bounce back: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Kevin McGonigle (DET), Jeff McNeil (ATH), and Nick Sogard (BOS).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Freddie Freeman finished with 3 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, August 17, 2026)?: Freddie Freeman (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, August 17, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Monday, August 17, 2026: Freddie Freeman (100), Yandy Díaz (94), Shohei Ohtani (94), Elly De La Cruz (89), Jordan Beck (84). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, August 17, 2026?: Yes — Freddie Freeman got 3 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .290 against lefties this year. Jordan Beck (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .313 against lefties this year. Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .297 against lefties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Freddie Freeman (LAD) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB). LHP Kent Emanuel has been giving up plenty to lefties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Joshua Báez (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL). RHP Janson Junk has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Bryce Harper (PHI). RHP Carmen Mlodzinski has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Gleyber Torres (DET), and Colt Keith (DET).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), Corbin Carroll (AZ), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT), and Alec Bohm (PHI). Cold but due to bounce back: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Kevin McGonigle (DET), Jeff McNeil (ATH), and Nick Sogard (BOS).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.