Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026
Top rbis spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The lefty is driving in runs at .179 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .300 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 18% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Ryan Johnson too — 1.000 across 1 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Adley Rutschman (BAL) (87) vs RHP Bryan Woo: an elite bat at .179 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.233).
- Bo Bichette (NYM) (77) vs RHP Aaron Nola: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.214), hot bat.
- Randal Grichuk (CWS) (77) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: an excellent bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.278).
- Alec Bohm (PHI) (73) vs LHP Sean Manaea: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (71) vs RHP Sean Burke: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.185).
- Cody Bellinger (NYY) (71) vs RHP Sean Burke: an excellent bat at .150 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.185).
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (70) vs RHP Sean Burke: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
- Adley Rutschman (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .207 against righties this year.
- Randal Grichuk (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .191 against lefties this year.
- Alec Bohm (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .174 against lefties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .186 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays