Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Thursday, August 20, 2026
Top rbis spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The lefty is driving in runs at .165 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .059 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a RBI in about 13% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been getting lit up by righties lately — .160 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 12 career PA against Grayson Rodriguez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (95) vs RHP Shane Bieber: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (87) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: a strong bat at .140 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.053).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (82) vs RHP Shane Bieber: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Daylen Lile (WSH) (81) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: a strong bat at .122 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.118).
- Isaac Paredes (HOU) (80) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .122 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) (74) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .139 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.065).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Daylen Lile (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays