Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is scoring at — R/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been getting lit up by righties lately — .222 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 12 career PA against Mitch Keller. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (99) vs RHP Jose Cabrera: a strong bat at .140 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (94) vs RHP Jose Cabrera: a solid bat at .126 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (88) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.207).
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (85) vs RHP Christian Scott: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (85) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .120 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (84) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: a strong bat at .130 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (84) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a strong bat at .145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .192 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .182 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.