Who has the best runs matchup today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?

James Wood (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Friday, July 3, 2026: James Wood (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Gunnar Henderson (100), Otto Lopez (100), Christian Yelich (100). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .205 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year. Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year. Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year. Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.

What are park factors?

A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, July 3, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, July 3, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ run, against 48% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 48%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 50%

Full slate

92/23439%

season 38%

Top call James Wood came through. Shohei Ohtani didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 17–1

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup81 Final · 5–9

PITaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–5

MINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup83 Final · 3–4

CWSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup84 Final · 3–0

BALaway

CINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–5

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup98 Final · 3–15

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup90 Final · 3–1

TBaway

HOUhomeTop matchup95 Final · 5–2

BOSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup83 Final · 12–5

MIAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–4

MILaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–4

SDaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–0

TORaway

SEAhomeTop matchup87

Not starting45 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 279 shownScore

92 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Liam HicksC
MIA@ATH· 1-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #10
T1
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@ATH· 4-for-5
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #34
T1
Iván HerreraDH
STL@CHC· 3-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #63
T1
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CHC· 1-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #77
T1
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsSF· 3-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #162
T1
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@CHC· 3-for-5
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #192
7
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #9
T7
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsMIN· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #26
T7
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #29
T7
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #49
T7
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsSF· 4-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #73
T7
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@NYY· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #82
T7
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsPIT· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #85
T7
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@LAA· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #108
T7
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@LAD· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #134
T7
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@WSH· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #137
T7
Masyn WinnSS
STL@CHC· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #152
T7
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #173
T7
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@CHC· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #196
T7
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsSF· 0-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #215
T7
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsSF· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #217
22
James WoodRF
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #1
T22
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@CIN· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #3
T22
Otto LopezSS
MIA@ATH· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #4
T22
Christian YelichDH
MIL@AZ· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #5
T22
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #6
T22
Luis Arraez2B
SF@COL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #13
T22
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@COL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #17
T22
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsSD· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #18
T22
Junior Caminero3B
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #19
T22
Rafael Devers1B
SF@COL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #20
T22
Brice Turang2B
MIL@AZ· 3-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #21
T22
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@AZ· 1-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #22
T22
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@CLE· 0-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #23
T22
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #24
T22
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsMIL· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #27
T22
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@AZ· 3-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #30
T22
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@LAD· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #32
T22
Adley RutschmanC
BAL@CIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #36
T22
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #37
T22
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #40
T22
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #42
T22
José TenaDH
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #43
T22
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@CLE· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #45
T22
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@LAA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #50
T22
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@ATH· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #53
T22
Juan SotoLF
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #54
T22
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@ATH· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #60
T22
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #67
T22
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsSF· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #71
T22
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@AZ· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #72
T22
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@ATL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #75
T22
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #76
T22
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLEvsCWS· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #84
T22
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@CIN· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #88
T22
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #94
T22
Taylor WallsSS
TB@HOU· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #103
T22
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsNYM· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #106
T22
Max Muncy3B
LADvsSD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #110
T22
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@WSH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #112
T22
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsSD· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #113
T22
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@ATH· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #115
T22
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@LAA· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #122
T22
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsMIL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #125
T22
Nelson VelázquezLF
STL@CHC· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #126
T22
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #127
T22
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsMIL· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #132
T22
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CHC· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #140
T22
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsSF· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #142
T22
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #148
T22
Ryan McMahon3B
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #150
T22
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@WSH· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #159
T22
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsCWS· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #166
T22
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@AZ· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #167
T22
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #168
T22
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZvsMIL· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #171
T22
José FermínLF
STL@CHC· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #172
T22
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsPIT· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #177
T22
Nick FortesC
TB@HOU· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #188
T22
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@ATH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #194
T22
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #198
T22
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@CLE· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #199
T22
Sean KeysDH
TOR@SEA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #202
T22
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #204
T22
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #212
T22
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #216
T22
Jose SiriCF
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #218
T22
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #219
T22
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@WSH· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #224
T22
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #229
T22
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@SEA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #231
T22
Luis TorrensC
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #232

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026

James Wood (WSH) is the top runs matchup on the Friday, July 3, 2026 board at 100, with Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Gunnar Henderson (BAL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: James Wood

James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is scoring at .205 R/PA against righties this year — and .143 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been getting lit up by righties lately — .222 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 12 career PA against Mitch Keller. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063).
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (100) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .135 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133).
Otto Lopez (MIA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .135 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.115).
Christian Yelich (MIL) (100) vs RHP Jose Cabrera: a strong bat at .134 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Ozzie Albies (ATL) (98) vs RHP Christian Scott: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
Drake Baldwin (ATL) (95) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
Jonathan Aranda (TB) (95) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.353).

Platoon edges to target

James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .205 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.
Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.

How it played out

7 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play James Wood finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?: James Wood (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Friday, July 3, 2026: James Wood (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Gunnar Henderson (100), Otto Lopez (100), Christian Yelich (100). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Friday, July 3, 2026?: Yes — James Wood got 1 run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .205 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year. Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year. Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year. Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.
What are park factors?: A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.