Best MLB stolen bases matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best stolen bases matchup today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?

Randy Arozarena (SEA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Trey Yesavage. An active bat with a green light and the volume to use it is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB stolen bases matchups today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?

The top stolen bases matchups on Sunday, July 5, 2026: Randy Arozarena (100), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (100), Fernando Tatis Jr. (100), Chandler Simpson (99), Ceddanne Rafaela (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by stolen bases upside.

Did the top stolen bases matchup get a stolen base on Sunday, July 5, 2026?

No — Randy Arozarena didn't record a stolen base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .107 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year. Cedric Mullins (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .046 against righties this year. Josh Naylor (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .038 against righties this year.

How is the stolen bases matchup score calculated?

It's his attempt-and-success rate, then the part that decides it: the pitcher's time to the plate and the catcher's arm. Reaching base at all is the gate, so his on-base odds against that hand feed in too. 0–100 across the slate.

What does SB/PA mean?

Stolen bases per plate appearance — a steal-rate proxy that surfaces the real base-stealers. It's a rare event (league average is tiny), so this board is about who actually runs: an active threat sits well above the pack. Driven mostly by the runner, since pitcher/catcher steal-suppression isn't in the feed yet.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Steals need three things to line up: he has to reach, he has to be running, and the battery has to let him. A high score means all three point the right way, not that he's going.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a stolen base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Handedness matters here for a different reason than the bat boards. A righty on the mound has his back to first and a slower move over; a lefty is staring at the runner. The split you're reading is about the hold, not the swing.

What are park factors?

Parks move steals less than any other board — it's the surface and the throw, not the fences. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it, but expect a narrow spread.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a stolen base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for stolen bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ stolen base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Steals hinge on intent as much as ability — a green light we can't see — so the top of this board converts less cleanly than the contact boards. The posted season rate is honest about that.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Is MatchWiz free?

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.