Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. The lefty is running at .110 SB/PA against righties this year — and .261 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a stolen base in about 5% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.1 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 5 career PA against Zebby Matthews, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- José Caballero (NYY) (77) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a high-volume bat at .037.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (73) vs RHP Shane Bieber: an active bat at .028.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (66) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a high-volume bat at .034.
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) (65) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a high-volume bat at .039.
- Jasson Domínguez (NYY) (62) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: an active bat at .023.
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (60) vs RHP Shane Bieber: an active bat at .020, hot bat.
- Konnor Griffin (PIT) (55) vs RHP Zack Littell: an active bat at .026.
Platoon edges to target
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .110 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .111 against righties this year.
- Jasson Domínguez (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.
- Josh Naylor (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .040 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.