The week in numbers
MatchWiz graded 258 rows between October 19 and October 25. No Play of the Day was logged for the week — nothing to report there.
The story instead sits in the ranked tiers and the prop boards, and it's a mixed one. The full board finished 216 of 518. That's the baseline. The tiers meant to beat it didn't all manage it.
Top 3 ranked: the miss of the week
The top 3 ranked matchups went 18 of 32. That's the weakest showing of any tier graded this week, and it's the one meant to be the sharpest.
When the headline tier underperforms the Full board, that's worth saying plainly rather than burying it. Eighteen from thirty-two is the number. No dressing it up.
Top 5 and top 10 held closer to form
Top 5 ranked matchups went 83 of 167. Top 10 ranked matchups went 142 of 302.
Both sit in range of the Full board's 216 of 518, which finished as the steadiest tier of the week. The drop-off is concentrated right at the very top of the board, not spread evenly through the rankings.
The prop boards: hits up, home runs down
Across the nine prop boards, each graded against 54 rows, the spread was wide.
Hits led the group at 63%. H+R+RBI followed at 59%, with Total bases close behind at 57%, and DFS points at 52%.
Runs came in at 39%, Walks at 37%, and RBI at 33%. Stolen bases sat lower still at 19%.
Home runs was the week's clear outlier: 7%. Out of 54 graded rows, almost none landed. That's the single worst number on the board this week, and it stands in sharp contrast to Hits sitting at 63% on the same sample size.
Reading the split
Put side by side, the contact-stat boards — Hits, H+R+RBI, Total bases — graded well. The power and speed boards — Home runs, Stolen bases, RBI — graded poorly. DFS points sat in the middle, which tracks given it blends both.
No posted plays were surfaced for the week, so there's no named-call ledger to walk through this time. The story is entirely in the tiers and the boards above.
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.