A 32-21 week, carried by one sport
Plays of the Day went 32-21 across MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL this week, a 60% win rate for +6.95 units at the prices posted. That's a 13% ROI for the week. The combined number hides a lopsided board: NHL was excellent, NBA was close to a coin flip, and NFL had a rough four days.
NHL: 15-2 and +10.77 units
NHL Plays of the Day went 15-2, an 88% win rate for +10.77 units and a 63% ROI. Goalie unders did the work. Clay Stevenson's under 26.5 saves (-130) cashed at 19, Dan Vladar's under 25.5 saves (-125) landed at 11 that same night and hit again at -105 on November 1, finishing at 19. Mackenzie Blackwood won on both sides of the market in the same week — under 26.5 saves on October 28, then over 21.5 saves on October 31. The lone bad beat came from Connor Hellebuyck's over 22.5 saves (-110) on October 30, which finished at 19.
NBA: 16-15, down 0.63 units
NBA Plays of the Day went 16-15, a 52% win rate for -0.63 units, an ROI of -2%. Paul Reed's under 21.5 PR (-118) on October 27 was the worst of it — he finished with 31. Aaron Wiggins' under 15.5 PR (-104) went the same way, landing at 27. On the other side, Ajay Mitchell's under 18.5 points (-110) cashed easily at 6, and Jaylin Williams' under 13.5 PR (-104) came in at 7.
NFL: 1-3, down 2.2 units
NFL Plays of the Day went 1-3 for -2.2 units. Michael Penix Jr.'s under 0.5 interceptions (-120) was the roughest call of the week — he threw four. Jared Goff's under 0.5 interceptions (-119) also lost, with one pick. Dak Prescott's over 0.5 interceptions (+106) lost the other way, finishing with zero. The one winner was Deshaun Watson's under 0.5 interceptions (-125), which also landed at zero.
MLB: a lost Play of the Day, a mixed board
MLB's lone Play of the Day lost, dropping 1.0 units.
The ranked matchup board had a quieter week. Top 3 ranked matchups hit 16 of 36. Top 5 ranked hit 54 of 171. Top 10 ranked hit 103 of 306, and the full board hit 162 of 522.
By stat, Hits led the individual boards at 50% across 54 graded calls. H+R+RBI hit 44%, Total bases 43%, and DFS points 39%. Runs landed at 35%, RBI at 31%, Walks at 19%. Home runs and Stolen bases were the hardest boards to call, at 4% and 6%.
Posted plays — the full set of surfaced MLB calls beyond the Play of the Day — went 0-1 this week. The one call was Drew Rasmussen's over 4.5 strikeouts at -142, which came up short at 4.0.
Every posted play this week
32 of 53 landed, 32 of 53 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 | Clay Stevenson (NHL) | under 26.5 saves | -130 | 19 | Hit |
| 10-27 | Dan Vladar (NHL) | under 25.5 saves | -125 | 11 | Hit |
| 10-27 | Day'Ron Sharpe (NBA) | under 10.5 RA | -125 | 6 | Hit |
| 10-27 | Dylan Harper (NBA) | under 22.5 PR | -110 | 19 | Hit |
| 10-27 | Jordan Binnington (NHL) | under 24.5 saves | -115 | 18 | Hit |
| 10-27 | Jrue Holiday (NBA) | over 7.5 RA | +106 | 7 | Miss |
| 10-27 | Luka Doncic (NBA) | under 40.5 PA | -114 | 50 | Miss |
| 10-27 | Noah Clowney (NBA) | over 10.5 PR | -115 | 7 | Miss |
| 10-27 | Paul Reed (NBA) | under 21.5 PR | -118 | 31 | Miss |
| 10-28 | Clint Capela (NBA) | under 15.5 PR | -107 | 18 | Miss |
| 10-28 | Cooper Flagg (NBA) | under 37.5 PRA | -115 | 39 | Miss |
| 10-28 | Dennis Schroder (NBA) | under 8.5 RA | -140 | 9 | Miss |
| 10-28 | Devin Cooley (NHL) | under 27.5 saves | -115 | 8 | Hit |
| 10-28 | Drew Rasmussen | over 4.5 strikeouts | -142 | 4 | Miss |
| 10-28 | Franz Wagner (NBA) | under 12.5 RA | -115 | 9 | Hit |
| 10-28 | Giannis Antetokounmpo (NBA) | under 37.5 PA | -114 | 27 | Hit |
| 10-28 | Jaxson Hayes (NBA) | under 16.5 PRA | -118 | 17 | Miss |
| 10-28 | Joseph Woll (NHL) | under 27.5 saves | -130 | 25 | Hit |
| 10-28 | Kris Dunn (NBA) | under 9.5 RA | +101 | 6 | Hit |
| 10-28 | Mackenzie Blackwood (NHL) | under 26.5 saves | -130 | 20 | Hit |
| 10-28 | Pascal Siakam (NBA) | under 29.5 PA | -114 | 29 | Hit |
| 10-28 | Paul Reed (NBA) | under 22.5 PR | -114 | 20 | Hit |
| 10-29 | Aaron Wiggins (NBA) | under 15.5 PR | -104 | 27 | Miss |
| 10-29 | Cam Spencer (NBA) | over 9.5 PA | -108 | 16 | Hit |
| 10-29 | Ilya Sorokin (NHL) | under 26.5 saves | -105 | 22 | Hit |
| 10-29 | Pyotr Kochetkov (NHL) | over 19.5 saves | -122 | 24 | Hit |
| 10-29 | Stuart Skinner (NHL) | under 25.5 saves | -120 | 16 | Hit |
| 10-29 | Zach LaVine (NBA) | under 6.5 RA | -110 | 8 | Miss |
| 10-30 | Alex Sarr (NBA) | over 15.5 PR | -125 | 11 | Miss |
| 10-30 | Connor Hellebuyck (NHL) | over 22.5 saves | -110 | 19 | Miss |
| 10-30 | Dennis Schroder (NBA) | under 18.5 PR | -107 | 10 | Hit |
| 10-30 | Dustin Wolf (NHL) | under 25.5 saves | -132 | 20 | Hit |
| 10-30 | Khaman Maluach (NBA) | under 15.5 PR | -124 | 15 | Hit |
| 10-30 | Luka Doncic (NBA) | under 34.5 points | -111 | 37 | Miss |
| 10-30 | Naz Reid (NBA) | under 20.5 PA | -102 | 13 | Hit |
| 10-31 | Ajay Mitchell (NBA) | under 18.5 points | -110 | 6 | Hit |
| 10-31 | Jacob Fowler (NHL) | over 22.5 saves | -120 | 25 | Hit |
| 10-31 | Jaylin Williams (NBA) | under 13.5 PR | -104 | 7 | Hit |
| 10-31 | Joan Beringer (NBA) | under 17.5 PR | -128 | 18 | Miss |
| 10-31 | Mackenzie Blackwood (NHL) | over 21.5 saves | +100 | 25 | Hit |
| 10-31 | Sergei Murashov (NHL) | under 26.5 saves | -115 | 22 | Hit |
| 11-01 | Andrew Nembhard (NBA) | under 12.5 RA | -118 | 7 | Hit |
| 11-01 | Dak Prescott (NFL) | over 0.5 interceptions | +106 | 0 | Miss |
| 11-01 | Dan Vladar (NHL) | under 25.5 saves | -105 | 19 | Hit |
| 11-01 | Darius Garland (NBA) | under 33.5 PRA | -111 | 22 | Hit |
| 11-01 | Deshaun Watson (NFL) | under 0.5 interceptions | -125 | 0 | Hit |
| 11-01 | Dylan Garand (NHL) | over 22.5 saves | -130 | 21 | Miss |
| 11-01 | Jared Goff (NFL) | under 0.5 interceptions | -119 | 1 | Miss |
| 11-01 | Julius Randle (NBA) | under 26.5 PA | -113 | 26 | Hit |
| 11-01 | Karel Vejmelka (NHL) | under 21.5 saves | -110 | 15 | Hit |
| 11-01 | Michael Penix Jr. (NFL) | under 0.5 interceptions | -120 | 4 | Miss |
| 11-01 | Nolan Traore (NBA) | under 19.5 PRA | -105 | 24 | Miss |
| 11-01 | Rui Hachimura (NBA) | under 15.5 points | -105 | 24 | Miss |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.