MatchWiz

Carlos Hernandez

10-5-0 · MatchWiz rating 1492

Age32Height5'8"Reach67"StanceOrthodoxDivisionFlyweightCampValle Flow StrikingCountryUSA

Rating trend

1500202120222023202420251492

current 1492 · hover or touch the chart to trace each fight

Our Elo-style rating after each UFC fight — 1500 is average; champions live around 1700+ (full leaderboard). This is the backbone of our win probabilities.

Career rates

Where he stands

Carlos Hernandez is 4-4 across 8 fights on our tape. Our rating has him at 1492 — it moves with every result and weights who he beat, so a win over a ranked opponent counts for far more than one over a debutant. A record on its own says very little in this sport — two fighters at 12-3 can have faced completely different opposition, which is exactly the gap the rating is built to close.

He goes the distance

Carlos rarely finishes — most of his wins come on the cards. That's not a criticism; decision fighters are often the most predictable profile on a board, because they win by accumulating rather than by landing one shot. It does mean his ceiling in any single fight is capped, and that the judges become a variable no model handles well.

How the model reads him

Carlos's rating updates after every result and weights the quality of the opponent. Against a specific opponent it becomes a win probability, adjusted for the stylistic matchup — striking output against absorption, takedown rate against takedown defense — plus age and layoff. The weighting is ours; the output is published on the fight board and graded.

What we'd flag

The tape starts in 2015 and covers UFC and Contender Series only, so career records elsewhere aren't reflected. Beyond that: MMA has the highest single-event variance of anything we model, and no rating survives contact with a flush shot.

Carlos Hernandez — FAQ

What is Carlos Hernandez's record?

4-4 across 8 fights on our tape, which covers UFC and Contender Series bouts from 2015 to the present. Our rating has him at 1492 — it weights who he beat, not just how often he won.

What kind of fighter is Carlos Hernandez?

He lands 3.8 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.5, with 1.6 takedowns per 15 minutes and 66% takedown defense. Those rates decide where his fights happen, which decides most of the rest.

Are Carlos Hernandez's ratings betting advice?

No. Every number here is a research signal from a statistical model, published with its graded record. The UFC model is calibrated but has not proven it can out-price the books, so we post no picks. Not betting advice, no guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Fight history

DateOpponentResultEventΔ rating
May 17, 2025HyunSung ParkL · Submission R1UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales-16
Nov 23, 2024Nyamjargal TumendemberelW · Decision - Split R3UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo+15
Jun 29, 2024Rei TsuruyaL · Decision - Unanimous R3UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2-16
Dec 10, 2023Tatsuro TairaL · KO/TKO R2UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez-29
Jun 17, 2023Denys BondarW · Decision - Unanimous R3UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier+27
Jan 14, 2023Allan NascimentoL · Submission R1UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov-46
Feb 26, 2022Victor AltamiranoW · Decision - Split R3UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green+29
Oct 6, 2021Daniel BarezW · Decision - Split R3Dana White's Contender Series: Season 5, Week 6+29

Record is career MMA (including pre-UFC fights); the history and rating cover UFC and Contender Series bouts from 2015 on. Back to the fight board →