MatchWiz

Bryce MitchellThug Nasty

19-4-0 · MatchWiz rating 1658

Age31Height5'10"Reach70"StanceSouthpawDivisionBantamweightCampBarata MMACountryUSA

Rating trend

1500201820192020202220232024202520261658

current 1658 · hover or touch the chart to trace each fight

Our Elo-style rating after each UFC fight — 1500 is average; champions live around 1700+ (full leaderboard). This is the backbone of our win probabilities.

Career rates

Where he stands

Bryce Mitchell is 10-3 across 13 fights on our tape. He's on a 2-fight winning run. Our rating has him at 1658 — it moves with every result and weights who he beat, so a win over a ranked opponent counts for far more than one over a debutant. A record on its own says very little in this sport — two fighters at 12-3 can have faced completely different opposition, which is exactly the gap the rating is built to close.

He wants the fight on the mat

Bryce lands 3.1 takedowns per 15 minutes and threatens 1.3 submissions in the same span. That's the profile the model reads first, because grappling decides where a fight happens and where it happens decides most of the rest. His matchups turn on one number more than any other — the opponent's takedown defense. Against 85%-plus defense the same fighter looks ordinary; against a striker who can't stop it he looks unbeatable.

How the model reads him

Two ratings produce a baseline, then the matchup adjusts it: who lands more, who absorbs more, who controls where the fight happens. That's the whole shape of it for Bryce and for everyone else — no manual adjustments, no fighter the model likes.

What we'd flag

Our tape runs from 2015 across UFC and Contender Series bouts, so a long career elsewhere shows only the part we can measure. And variance in this sport is enormous — one punch settles a fight the better fighter was winning, which is why nothing here should be read off a single result.

Bryce Mitchell — FAQ

What is Bryce Mitchell's record?

10-3 across 13 fights on our tape, which covers UFC and Contender Series bouts from 2015 to the present. Our rating has him at 1658 — it weights who he beat, not just how often he won.

What kind of fighter is Bryce Mitchell?

He lands 2.2 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 1.5, with 3.1 takedowns per 15 minutes and 38% takedown defense. Those rates decide where his fights happen, which decides most of the rest.

Are Bryce Mitchell's ratings betting advice?

No. Every number here is a research signal from a statistical model, published with its graded record. The UFC model is calibrated but has not proven it can out-price the books, so we post no picks. Not betting advice, no guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Fight history

DateOpponentResultEventΔ rating
Jun 7, 2026Santiago LunaW · Submission R3UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim+15
Jul 26, 2025Said NurmagomedovW · Decision - Unanimous R3UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridder+16
Apr 13, 2025Jean SilvaL · Submission R2UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes-18
Dec 8, 2024Kron GracieW · KO/TKO R3UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura+11
Dec 17, 2023Josh EmmettL · KO/TKO R1UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington-21
Sep 23, 2023Dan IgeW · Decision - Unanimous R3UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot+16
Dec 11, 2022Ilia TopuriaL · Submission R2UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev-20
Mar 6, 2022Edson BarbozaW · Decision - Unanimous R3UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal+11
Oct 31, 2020Andre FiliW · Decision - Unanimous R3UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva+23
May 9, 2020Charles RosaW · Decision - Unanimous R3UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje+27
Dec 8, 2019Matt SaylesW · Submission R1UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik+35
Mar 23, 2019Bobby MoffettW · Decision - Unanimous R3UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis+33
Jul 7, 2018Tyler DiamondW · Decision - Majority R3The Ultimate Fighter 27 Finale+32

Record is career MMA (including pre-UFC fights); the history and rating cover UFC and Contender Series bouts from 2015 on. Back to the fight board →