Where he stands
Marcelo Rojo is 0-3 across 3 fights on our tape. He's on a 3-fight losing run. Our rating has him at 1407 — it moves with every result and weights who he beat, so a win over a ranked opponent counts for far more than one over a debutant. A record on its own says very little in this sport — two fighters at 12-3 can have faced completely different opposition, which is exactly the gap the rating is built to close.
He's a volume striker
Marcelo lands 4.9 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 6.4. He takes nearly as much as he gives, and that differential is the honest read on a striker. Volume alone is exciting; volume minus absorption is what predicts. His takedown defense sits at 67% — for a striker that's the number that decides whether he gets to fight his fight at all.
How the model reads him
The number attached to Marcelo is a matchup output, not a ranking. Rating versus rating, then style versus style, then the things that bite in this sport specifically — age and time off. It gets graded on the fight board like every other call.
What we'd flag
Two limits worth carrying. We only hold UFC and Contender Series fights from 2015, so anything before that is invisible to these numbers. And a single punch can settle a fight the better fighter was winning — this sport punishes confident predictions more than most. For Marcelo specifically, Marcelo has only 3 fights on our tape, so every rate here is built on very little.