Where he stands
Maria Oliveira is 1-4 across 5 fights on our tape. He's on a 2-fight losing run. Our rating has him at 1404 — it moves with every result and weights who he beat, so a win over a ranked opponent counts for far more than one over a debutant. A record on its own says very little in this sport — two fighters at 12-3 can have faced completely different opposition, which is exactly the gap the rating is built to close.
He's a volume striker
Maria lands 5 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 5.8. He takes nearly as much as he gives, and that differential is the honest read on a striker. Volume alone is exciting; volume minus absorption is what predicts. His takedown defense sits at 48% — for a striker that's the number that decides whether he gets to fight his fight at all.
How the model reads him
Maria's rating updates after every result and weights the quality of the opponent. Against a specific opponent it becomes a win probability, adjusted for the stylistic matchup — striking output against absorption, takedown rate against takedown defense — plus age and layoff. The weighting is ours; the output is published on the fight board and graded.
What we'd flag
The tape starts in 2015 and covers UFC and Contender Series only, so career records elsewhere aren't reflected. Beyond that: MMA has the highest single-event variance of anything we model, and no rating survives contact with a flush shot.