Where he stands
Caio Machado is 1-3 across 4 fights on our tape. He's on a 3-fight losing run. Our rating has him at 1443 — it moves with every result and weights who he beat, so a win over a ranked opponent counts for far more than one over a debutant. A record on its own says very little in this sport — two fighters at 12-3 can have faced completely different opposition, which is exactly the gap the rating is built to close.
He's a volume striker
Caio lands 5.8 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.9. The gap between what he lands and what he takes is the good kind — output without a matching cost is the most durable striking edge there is. His takedown defense sits at 82% — for a striker that's the number that decides whether he gets to fight his fight at all.
How the model reads him
Two ratings produce a baseline, then the matchup adjusts it: who lands more, who absorbs more, who controls where the fight happens. That's the whole shape of it for Caio and for everyone else — no manual adjustments, no fighter the model likes.
What we'd flag
Our tape runs from 2015 across UFC and Contender Series bouts, so a long career elsewhere shows only the part we can measure. And variance in this sport is enormous — one punch settles a fight the better fighter was winning, which is why nothing here should be read off a single result. For Caio specifically, Caio has only 4 fights on our tape, so every rate here is built on very little.