Where he stands
Tom Nolan is 6-1 across 7 fights on our tape. He's on a 5-fight winning run. Our rating has him at 1619 — it moves with every result and weights who he beat, so a win over a ranked opponent counts for far more than one over a debutant. A record on its own says very little in this sport — two fighters at 12-3 can have faced completely different opposition, which is exactly the gap the rating is built to close.
He's a volume striker
Tom lands 4.8 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.7. That differential is modest, which puts him in the large middle of the division rather than the top of it. His takedown defense sits at 58% — for a striker that's the number that decides whether he gets to fight his fight at all.
How the model reads him
Two ratings produce a baseline, then the matchup adjusts it: who lands more, who absorbs more, who controls where the fight happens. That's the whole shape of it for Tom and for everyone else — no manual adjustments, no fighter the model likes.
What we'd flag
Our tape runs from 2015 across UFC and Contender Series bouts, so a long career elsewhere shows only the part we can measure. And variance in this sport is enormous — one punch settles a fight the better fighter was winning, which is why nothing here should be read off a single result.