Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP the starter. The lefty is stacking production at .533 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .614 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 52% of his trips. And the starter has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against the starter. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (96) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .515 into an arm tough on the same side (.375), hitter's park.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (94) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: an excellent bat at .558 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.724).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (94) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .521 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (92) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .551 into an arm tough on the same side (.375), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (91) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: an excellent bat at .568 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (91) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: an elite bat at .620 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) (90) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: an excellent bat at .562 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.724), hot bat.
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Mitch Keller has been getting lit up by righties — .571 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Daylen Lile (WSH), and Curtis Mead (WSH).
- LHP David Peterson has been vulnerable to lefties — .500 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jordan Walker (STL), Iván Herrera (STL), and Alec Burleson (STL).
- RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .493 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL).
- RHP Luis Castillo has been vulnerable to righties — .485 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .526 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .539 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .525 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .581 against righties this year.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .560 against righties this year.
Best parks for all-around production today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.