MLB NRFI / YRFI predictions — Monday, July 6, 2026
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) is a top-of-the-order-vs-the-starter bet — only the first three or four hitters come up. We project each side's 1st-inning runs from its leadoff hitters' matchup with the opposing starter, then set our NRFI probability and fair odds against the market and grade it in the open. Across 345 graded games our first-inning call has been right 50% of the time (NRFI has hit 46% of games). It's a hard, efficiently-priced market, so we treat this as transparency — no plays until a first-inning lean earns a sustained edge.
NRFI = no run scores in the 1st inning · YRFI = a run does. Our NRFI% is the model's chance of a scoreless 1st; the gold ▲/▼ is the side we favor vs the book — informational, not a play.
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies
KCKansas City Royals
NYYNew York Yankees
TBTampa Bay Rays
HOUHouston Astros
WSHWashington Nationals
NYMNew York Mets
ATLAtlanta Braves
MILMilwaukee Brewers
STLSt. Louis Cardinals
AZArizona Diamondbacks
SDSan Diego Padres
TORToronto Blue Jays
SFSan Francisco Giants
COLColorado Rockies
LADLos Angeles DodgersOur NRFI% = the model's chance no run scores in the 1st inning (either team), from each side's top of the order vs the opposing starter. Fair = that as no-vig odds. Mkt NRFI = the book's Under-0.5 line. The gold badge is the side we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade the first-inning model against the actual result, in the open. The engine keys on each starter's first-inning run-prevention (many arms carry “first-inning jitters” their full-game line hides), scaled by the top of the order it faces. On the full slate NRFI is efficiently priced — but on our strong leans (where we diverge from the book by ≥8%, the ★ picks) it's graded a real edge. Emerging, not proven — the sample is thin — so we mark them, we don't hard-sell them.
NRFI is a heavily-bet, sharply-priced market, so on the full slate we grade about break-even — no edge in the marginal leans. The edge lives in the tail: when the model's first-inning read diverges from the book by ≥8% (the ★ leans), it's beaten the line in our backtest, and that held up out-of-sample. It's a thin, early edge on a small sample — so we surface the ★ picks and grade them honestly forward before we'd ever call them locks.
MLB NRFI / YRFI — FAQ
What does NRFI mean?
NRFI is “No Runs First Inning” — a bet that neither team scores in the top or bottom of the 1st. YRFI (“Yes Runs First Inning”) is the opposite. Only the first three or four hitters usually come up, so it's really a top-of-the-order-vs-the-starter bet.
How accurate is MatchWiz's NRFI / YRFI model?
We grade every first inning against the result and post the record right on the board. It's a hard, efficiently-priced market, so overall we treat it as transparency — but our strongest leans, where our model diverges most from the book, have graded a real edge, and those we surface as plays.
How does the first-inning model work?
We project each side's 1st-inning runs from its leadoff hitters' matchup with the opposing starter, then turn that into a No-Runs-First-Inning probability and fair odds and set it beside the market line. The exact weighting is proprietary and tuned weekly.
Are these NRFI betting picks?
No. Every number here is a graded research signal from our model, shown against the market and honest about its record. Not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).