Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Fantasy Points Matchups — Thursday, July 30, 2026
Nolan McLean (NYM) leads the Thursday, July 30, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 19.7 pts is the model's top DK pitcher tonight. Roki Sasaki (LAD) is next at 100. This board composes every arm's full stat line into one DraftKings number — the roster decision, priced.
Top spot: Nolan McLean
Nolan McLean (NYM) is the projected points leader at about 19.7 pts against MIA — the full package of innings, whiffs, and a live win chance, netted against the damage he figures to allow.
The rest of the top of the board
Roki Sasaki (LAD) (100) — about 15.2 pts vs SEA.
Sean Burke (CWS) (100) — about 20.1 pts vs NYY.
Robbie Ray (SF) (97) — about 14.9 pts vs SD.
Sonny Gray (BOS) (94) — about 14.6 pts vs ATH.
Eury Pérez (MIA) (81) — about 17.1 pts vs NYM.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 16.1 pts. Nolan McLean finished with 17.45. Every projection is graded against the box score.
What actually makes a DK pitching score
DraftKings pitcher scoring is strikeouts and innings, with everything else as seasoning: IP ×2.25, K ×2, a +4 win bonus, and deductions for earned runs (−2), hits (−0.6), and walks (−0.6). Run the math and the shape is clear — a seven-inning, eight-strikeout start is worth ~31.75 before the win bonus, and no realistic ER line erases that. So ceiling lives where whiffs meet a long leash, and the win bonus is why the model carries a win probability for every start rather than treating pitching points as a rate stat. Salary decides the rest: the slate's best arm and the slate's best price are rarely the same card.
How to read the fantasy points board
Each starter's projected DK points are composed from the model's own component boards — projected outs, strikeouts, earned runs, hits, and walks, plus his win probability — scored with the actual DraftKings formula (IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6). The 0–100 score ranks tonight's slate; the points number is the projection itself, graded against the real box score once the game's final.
Which pitcher has the best fantasy points matchup today (Thursday, July 30, 2026)?
Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 19.7 pts against MIA.
What are the best pitcher fantasy points props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, July 30, 2026: Nolan McLean (~19.7 pts), Roki Sasaki (~15.2 pts), Sean Burke (~20.1 pts), Robbie Ray (~14.9 pts), Sonny Gray (~14.6 pts). The full board ranks every starter.
How are DraftKings pitcher points calculated?
IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6, plus rare bonuses for complete games and no-hitters. Innings and strikeouts dominate — which is why leash and whiffs, together, are what this board is really ranking.
Should I pay up for the top projected pitcher in DFS?
In cash games, usually — pitcher is the highest-variance-reduction slot on the roster. In tournaments, check the salary column first: the top projection at full price and a near-equal projection at a discount are different decisions, and the discount often wins the leverage math.
How is the fantasy points score calculated?
Ranked by projected DraftKings fantasy points — innings, strikeouts, the win, and the runs / hits / walks allowed. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected fantasy points number alongside, and graded against the box score. The exact weighting is our own, tuned weekly against results.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best fantasy points spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a starter's projected DraftKings fantasy points. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His strikeout, outs, earned-run, hits and walks projections, composed via the DK pitcher formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from the tuned pitcher boards, so it inherits their sharpness. A DFS tool, not a book market.
How to use it
The pitcher side of the DFS build — sort by value, then lock a top arm in the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
